Podcasts

South America runs into production problems | Weekly Commodity Market Update

This week Will and Ben dive into the impacts of wet weather and upcoming USDA reports. Learn more about what's happening in the agriculture markets here: https://brownfieldagnews.com/markets/ Find more agriculture news here: https://brownfieldagnews.com/ Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close): ➡︎ July 2024 corn up $.20 at $4.69 ➡︎ December 2024 corn up $.16 at $4.88 ➡︎ July 2024 soybeans up $.66 at $12.48 ➡︎ November 2024 soybeans up $.41 at $12.19 ➡︎ July soybean oil down 0.53 cents at 43.84 cents/lb ➡︎ July soybean meal up $30.30 at $387.60/short ton ➡︎ July 2024 wheat up $.40 at $6.48 ➡︎ July WTI Crude Oil down $4.33 at $77.76/barrel Weekly highlights: March soybean crush came in at 203.7 million bushels below the 206-million-bushel trade estimate- but was the second largest monthly volume on record behind only December 2023 at 204.3 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol in March came in at 469 million bushels up from 445 million last month and 436 million last year. US stocks of crude oil and gasoline were higher on the week while stocks of distillate fuels and ethanol decreased. US ethanol production increased 10 million gallons to 290 million gallons on the week. This compares to 287 million gallons the same week last year. Ethanol stocks decreased 10.3 million gallons. The US Treasury and IRS issued updated guidance on Sustainable Aviation Fuel 40 B tax credits providing a pathway for US corn and soybean bushels but with farming practice instructions. No information was provided about the 45 Z tax credits that start next calendar year. Lates season rains and disease continue to impact South American production. Rains in southern Brazil threated remaining unharvested soybeans while disease and poor weather hamper Argentina corn and soybean production. The Federal Open Market Committee kept the short-term interest rate at 5.25-5.50 during their April meeting while cooling thoughts of interest rate hikes this year. After five months of monthly jobs reports surprising to the high side, the April Jobs report showed the US economy added 175,000 jobs- below analyst expectations of 243,000. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% compared to expectations of 3.8%. Open interest positions of Chicago futures and options positions was -4% for combined Chicago wheat contracts, -8.3% for Chicago corn contracts, -13.8% for Chicago soybeans. Soybean oil was -5%, and soybean meal -9.2%, while cotton and rice were up 1.1% and 1.9% respectively. Managed money traders were net buyers of Chicago corn (20,506) and Chicago wheats (96,074) while net buyers of Chicago soybeans (222 contracts). All remain historically short. US export sales were bearish across the board. Corn, grain sorghum, wheats, soybean meal and soybean oil were all down week over week. Soybeans were up week over week but still low. There were net cancelations of wheats as cancelations of Hard Red Winter wheat by unknown destinations and Soft Red Winter by Ecuador and unknown destinations off set all other positive sales. There were no corn sales to China and net cancelations of soybean sale to China. Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed for the week ending May 2, 2024. Corn and grain sorghum exports were on the high end of expectations while soybeans and wheats were on the lower end. Crop planting progress still increased on the week. Corn planting increased to 36% compared to 39% on average, soybean planting at 25% was up 7% and compares to 21% on average, cotton planting was up 9% to 24% and compared to 20% on average. For corn planting Indiana (20 vs 24) and Illinois (32 vs 41) are behind but joining them are the plain states of Colorado (12 vs 26) and Nebraska (31 vs 48) that are behind the average pace. The winter wheat conditions rating increased just slightly to 335 (perfect score= 500) compared to 331 last week and 269 last year. Topics: ➡︎ Market recap ➡︎ Commodity gains, lower crude oil ➡︎ Wet planting conditions ➡︎ South American production concerns ➡︎ GREET model attributes ➡︎ USDA supply and demand report preview ➡︎ Reports to watch Connect with us: ➡︎ X (formerly Twitter): https://twitter.com/brownfield ➡︎ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BrownfieldAgNews ➡︎ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBR7KnDynZ0hw7xF23dE94A Brownfield Ag News creates and delivers original content across multiple media platforms. Brownfield is the largest and one of the oldest agricultural news networks in the country carrying agricultural news, markets, weather, commentary and feature content. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Alternative U.S. export markets beyond China

This week Will and Ben breakdown the shifting ag trade market and where U.S. opportunities exist.   Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn up $.10 at $4.49 - December 2024 corn flat at $4.72  - July 2024 soybeans up $.06 at $11.82 - November 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.78 - July soybean oil down 1.29 cents at 44.37 cents/lb - July soybean meal up $9.50 at $354.30/short ton - July 2024 wheat up $.21 at $6.08 - July WTI Crude Oil up $0.19 at $82.09/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Personal consumption expenditure data came in a little higher than expected this month at 2.7% growth in March compared to 2.5% in February and above expectations of 2.6%. ·        Stocks of US crude oil, gasoline, and ethanol were lower week over week with distillate stocks higher. Crude oil stocks fell 267 million gallons ending a string of four consecutive weekly increases totaling 628 million gallons. Gasoline stocks fell 27 million gallons. Distillate stocks made a counter seasonal move higher of 68 million gallons. ·        US ethanol production pulled back again this week to 280 million gallons after falling sharply the week prior. The volume compares to 284 million gallons during the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were down 15 million gallons, but remain seasonally high. ·        Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-0.4%), soybeans (-6.2%), soybean oil (-4.1%), and soybean meal (-0.3%) while being up slightly for corn (+0.2%), cotton (+2.0%) and rice (+2.2%). ·        As anticipated, disaggregated CFTC reporting showed that managed money traders covered short positions over the week ending April 23rd. Managed money traders decreased their short position in Chicago wheats 21,242 positions, they also decreased their net short of Chicago corn positions 41,024 positions and their net short of Chicago soybean positions 18,861 positions. ·        Corn export sales of 51.2 million bushels were well above expectations toping out at 35.4 million and the strongest of the 2023/24 marketing year. Soybean export sales of 7.7 million bushels were below the most bearish pre-report estimate of 11 million bushels. Grain sorghum sales of 1.5 million bushels and wheat sales of 3 million bushes were both up week over week. ·        US grain and oilseed export inspections were down week over week for corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum, but up for combined wheat classes. All commodities were within expectations. Although the corn, soybean, and grain sorghum volumes were seasonally low. ·        For the third week in a row- US corn planting progress doubled. At 27% complete, the US corn planting pace exceeds 23% this same time last year and 22% on average, but matched trader expectations. Last year we saw a 23-percentage point increase, which seems unlikely this year. Soybean planting increased 10% percentage points to 18%- ahead of the 5-year average of 10% and 1 point above trader expectations. ·        The winter wheat conditions rating dropped just slightly to 334 down 2 points from last week, but still ahead of the 270 last year at this time. Spring wheat plantings are the fastest in 3 years. Topics: - Market recap - Sideways commodities - Continued weak soybean exports - Alternatives to Chinese export market - Looking ahead to USDA's GREET model - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Brazil ahead of U.S. in SAF market

This week Will and Ben look at Brazil's progress in the sustainable aviation fuel sector.   Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn up $.08 at $4.39 - December 2024 corn up $.03 at $4.72  - May 2024 soybeans up $.03 at $11.61 - November 2024 soybeans up $.04 at $11.71 - May soybean oil up 0.19 cents at 45.66 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $5.80 at $344.30/short ton - May 2024 wheat up $.19 at $5.70 - July 2024 wheat up $.20 at $5.87 - May WTI Crude Oil down $2.87 at $82.01/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Consumer retail sales rose 0.7% in March and outlays in February were also stronger than previously reported, indicating the economy got a boost from consumer spending in the first quarter. ·        US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up another 115 million gallons from the week prior. Crude oil stocks have increased 628 gallons over the past month. Conversely, US gasoline and distillate stocks were down 48 and 116 million gallons respectively. On the lower gasoline stocks- the average regular gasoline price was up 4 cents week over week. ·        Ethanol production pulled back sharply to 289 million gallons- down 21 million from the week prior as several plants took scheduled maintenance. Ethanol stocks levels decreased 5 million gallons but remain at relatively large levels. ·        Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-1.9%), corn (-1.7%), soybean meal (-0.4%), cotton (-19.6%) and rice (-77%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+5.8%) and soybean oil (+3.8%). ·        Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (16,016 contracts) soybeans (28,565 contracts) and Chicago wheat (14,455 contracts). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again. ·        USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed all cattle on feed as of April 1 at 11.821 head or 101.5% of last year but below the 102.1% trade estimate. March cattle placements at 87.7% of last year were well below the 93.0% trade estimate with marketings of 86.3% year over year- down from a 88.1% expectation. ·        Export sales for the most recent week were neutral to bearish with corn sales of 19.7 million bushels only slightly better than the marketing year low set the week prior of 12.8 million. Soybean sales made a counter seasonal move of 17.8 million bushels. There were net cancelations of 0.1 and 3.4 million bushels of grain sorghum and wheat respectively.  ·        Export inspections were supportive to corn and grain sorghum while neutral to soybeans and wheat. Reported corn inspections of 63.9 million bushels were the largest of the marketing year and highest weekly volume in nearly 2 years. ·        National corn planting progress doubled again this week to 12% complete- ahead of 10% on average. Soybean planting rose from 3% to 8%- double the five-year average. Of states reporting plantings- most states are ahead of average. ·        The winter wheat conditions rating dropped a surprising 10 points to 336 (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 270 this time last year. Topics: - Market recap - Wheat rally - Weekend Russian attacks - U.S. weather impacts - Planting progress - Brazil's delivery of SAFs to U.S. - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weeekly Commodity Market Update: Soybean crush sets record as global production and stocks shift.

This week Will and Ben take a look at the shifting soybean picture and record soy crush.   Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.31 - December 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.69  - May 2024 soybeans down $.23 at $11.58 - November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.67 - May soybean oil down 2.43 cents at 45.47 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $2.50 at $338.50/short ton - May 2024 wheat down $.14 at $5.51 - July 2024 wheat down $.13 at $5.67 - May WTI Crude Oil down $.73 at $84.88/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        The Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose to 3.5% in March, higher than expectation and the third consecutive month of increasing inflation. Shelter and energy costs drove the increase. Following the report, traders pushed the first expected Federal Funds rate cut out to September compared to June moments before the report. ·        The Producer Price Index, another measure of inflation, rose 2.1% from March 2023, which was the largest monthly year over year gain in nearly a year. This was slightly down from an expectation of 2.2%. Month over month prices were up 0.2% compared to up 0.6% in February and pre-report expectations of up 0.3%. ·        US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up 245 million gallons from the week prior. Similarly, US gasoline and distillate stocks were up on lower demand and higher imports. Crude oil prices have eased from their highs experienced last week on easing geopolitical tensions but the risk is still present. ·        Ethanol production pulled back 310 million gallons- down 5 million from the week prior. Ethanol margins decreased to end March but have started to move higher again despite near record ethanol stock levels. Margins remain positive for ethanol producers. ·        USDA lowered US corn ending stocks to 2.122 down 50 million bushels on the month but not as much as the 70-million-bushel drop expected. Demand was increased 25 million bushels for both corn exports and ethanol use. ·        USDA increased soybean ending stocks 25 million bushels on the month and 23 million more than what was expected after cuts to exports, seed and residual more than overcorrect for lower imports. ·        Brazil’s CONAB reduced both total corn production and soybean production for the country 1.8 and 0.5 million metric tons respectively. Both are noticeably lower than USDA’s April numbers. ·        Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-4.1%), corn (-2.8%), soybean oil (-1.8%), soybean meal (-2.0%), cotton (-11.1%) and rice (-5.9%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+1.0%). ·        Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (3,998) and soybeans (1,054). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again. Traders decreased their net short of Chicago Wheats 1,239 contracts. ·        Last week Bloomberg reported Chinese importers canceled “four or five cargos” of Ukrainian corn booked for delivery in an effort to support local prices ahead of planting. ·        Export sales for week ending March 4th were bearish and pulled the market lower. Corn sales of 12.8 million bushels were the lowest of the marketing year and fell well below expectations. Soybean and wheat sales were also on the low end of expectations.  ·        Export inspections with the exception of wheats were flat to lower and uninspiring. The reported soybean volume was the lowest since Mid-September as volumes continue to move seasonally lower. Wheat exports exceeded all pre-report expectations.  ·        The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed a record high 196.4 million bushels in March. This was 1.2 million bushels below the average trade estimate ahead of the report. The soybean oil stocks volume was on the top end of expectations and the fifth consecutive month of volumes exceeding the average trade estimate. ·        As expected, planting picked up in the western corn belt last week. Six percent of the US corn crop is planted compared to 3% last week and an average pace of 5%. The first soybean planting progress came in at 3% up from an average of 1%. Cotton and rice were 8% and 44% respectively. ·        The winter wheat conditions rating slipped just slightly to 346 down from 348 last week (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 273 last year.   Topics: - Market recap - Sideways to lower commodity trading - Corn stocks estimates drop - Soybean stocks estimates rise - Soybean crush sets all-time record - Brazilian production shifts - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Shifting U.S. job market speaks to general economic picture

This week Will and Ben discuss the impact of the U.S. jobs picture and energy stocks on the general market and agriculture. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close): - May 2024 corn flat at $4.35 - December 2024 corn down $.01 at $4.73 - May 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.81 - November 2024 soybeans up $.02 at $11.84 - May soybean oil down 0.34 cents at 47.90 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $2.60 at $336.00/short ton - May 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.65 - July 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.80 - May WTI Crude Oil up $2.43 at $85.61/barrel Weekly Highlights • The February JOLTS (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) report showed job opening in February totaled 8.8 million matching expectations, while the number of people quitting jobs rose slightly to 3.5 million. • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 135 million gallons last week after being up 133 million gallons the week prior. Conversely gasoline stocks declined 179 million gallons and distillate stocks decreased 43 million gallons. Crude Oil prices broke above $90/ barrel last week on middle east tensions but broke lower to start the week on reports of de-escalation. • Ethanol production increased to 315 million gallons on the week- up from 310 the week prior and 295 the same week in 2023. Ethanol production continues to run at historically high levels. Gasoline demand was up 6%. Ethanol stocks rose 14 million gallons. • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was up for wheats (+3.6%), Corn (+1.9%), soybeans (+3.1%), Soybean Oil (+2.5%), soybean meal (+2.6%), and Cotton (+0.8%), while being down for rough rice (-0.7%). • Managed money traders reduced their net shorts in Chicago wheats 2,322 contracts while increasing their net shorts of corn- 7,826 contracts and soybeans 3,476 contracts. Money managers do not seem concerned about being historically short in corn and soybeans. • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were rather weak for the week ending March 28th. Corn, soybean, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats were all down week over week. Soybean sales of 7.1 million bushels were below all pre-report estimates. • Export inspections were mixed. Corn export inspections of 55.9 million bushels exceed all expectations, wheat inspections of 18.3 million bushels were on the top end of expectations while soybean inspections of 17.8 million bushels were the lowest since early September. • Planting progress was slow with several broad storms moving through the Midwest. Corn planting increased 1% to 3%, which is slightly ahead of the 3-year average of 2%. Rice planting was up 9% to 23% while cotton planting was reported at 4% up from 3%. • The winter wheat conditions rating was unchanged at 348 (a perfect score is 500). Up from 276 last year. Kansas at 338 was up from 220 last year. Oklahoma at 365 was up from 260 last year and Test at 324 was up from 250 last year. • The March Job Reports showed nonfarm payroll in the US at 303,000 up from 270,000 in February and analyst expectations of 200,000. • The US unemployment rate also fell to 3.8% down from 3.9% and stayed below 26th month in a row, the longest stretch since the 1960s. Topics: - Market recap - Sideways commodity trading - U.S. Jobs & job openings report updates - Crude oil stocks building - April WASDE pre-report expectations - Planting progress - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: USDA lowers corn and principal acreage expectations.

This week Will and Ben discuss USDA's updated acreage expectations.  Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn down $0.01 at $4.35 - December 2024 corn up $.01 at $4.74  - May 2024 soybeans down $.16 at $11.85 - November 2024 soybeans down $.10 at $11.82 - May soybean oil down 0.47 cents at 48.24 cents/lb - May soybean meal down $6.00 at $333.40/short ton - May 2024 wheat up $.06 at $5.57 - July 2024 wheat up $.05 at $5.72 - May WTI Crude Oil up $1.65 at $83.18/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Consumer sentiment climbed to a 2 ½ year high as American’s express increased confidence that inflation will continue to ease and reduce the financial strain on households. ·        Consumer spending in February rebounded after a sluggish start to the year as household spending rose 0.8% in February to market the biggest increase in 13 months. Economists had anticipated 0.5%. ·        US crude oil stocks, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, increased 133 million gallons on the week. Gasoline stocks increased 55 million gallons while distillate stocks fell 50 million gallons. US gasoline demand was down 1% on the week. ·        Ethanol production increased just slightly to 310 million gallons produced on the week- up from 308 million the week before and 295 million the same week last year. With the higher ethanol production and lower gasoline demand- ethanol stocks increased just slightly on the week indicating a solid week of ethanol exports. ·        Grain crushed for ethanol through February now totals 2,714 million bushels- up 166 million bushels over the same period last year. ·        USDA’s planting intentions report indicated US producers will plant just over 90 million acres of corn in 2024- down 1.8 million acres from analyst expectations ahead of the report. Soybean acreage of 86.510 compared to 86.530 million in expectations. Principal crop acres were down 6.3 million acres. Grain stocks all increased year over year but were as expected. ·        Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions increased for Chicago corn (0.9%), soybeans (2.8%), Soybean oil (0.3%), and cotton (0.7%) while falling for wheats (-1.5%), soybean meal (-0.9%) and rough rice (-6%). ·        Managed money traders increased their net shorts of Chicago wheats (16,313 contracts) and Chicago corn (8,742 contracts) while shrinking their net short of soybeans (13,559 contracts). Producers and merchants were big sellers of soybeans while buying back corn and wheats. ·        Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were mixed: corn sales of 47.5 million bushels were on the high side of expectations and wheat sales of 12.5 million bushels were above all expectations. Soybean sales of 9.7 million bushels were half of the week prior and below all trade expectations.  ·        Export inspections of US grains and oilseed to international markets were supportive on the most recent week. Corn exports of 56.4 million bushels came in above all pre-report expectations and a marketing year high while wheat exports were on the high side of expectations. With strong exports the corn deficit remained unchanged at 22 million bushels.  ·        The First Crop Progress report of the year showed US corn planted at 2%- the same as last year. Cotton planted at 3% comparted to 4% last year. ·        The initial winter wheat conditions score of 348 compares to 279 last year and a 3-year average of 313. (500 is a perfect score).   Topics: - Market recap - What's ahead for corn futures - USDA grain stocks & prospective plantings review - Corn, soybean acreage - Drop in principal acreage - Corn usage - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Expected farm income challenges could lead to farm consolidation.

This week Will and Ben discuss how interest rates and acreage expectations are guiding the market.  Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn flat at $4.36 - December 2024 corn up $.03 at $4.73  - May 2024 soybeans up $.14 at $12.01 - November 2024 soybeans up $.12 at $11.91 - May soybean oil flat at 48.71 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $7.50 at $339.40/short ton - May 2024 wheat up $.09 at $5.51 - July 2024 wheat up $.09 at $5.67 - May WTI Crude Oil flat at $81.49/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        The US market remains strong. The home builder confidence index reached its highest level since July 2023 while housing starts, building permits and existing home sales all exceeded expectations. With higher interest rates, all-cash buyers made up a third of homes sales- the largest since 2011. New home sales 0.3% in February. ·        The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee unanimously decided to hold interest rats at 5.25-5.50 percent but reiterated that it still planned to cut interest rates three times in 2024. ·        Key outlook measures released quarterly by the Federal Reserve moved in opposite directions for rate cuts. Unemployment was revised down and inflation index was revised up compared to December. ·        US crude oil stocks decreased 82 million gallons on the week. Gasoline stocks were also down 139 million gallons with seven straight weeks of declines drawing down stocks nearly 1 billion gallons. Distillate stocks were up 26 million gallons. ·        Ethanol production increased to 308 million gallons on the week- up 7 million gallons from the week before. Domestic gasoline consumption was down 3% on the week. With the larger ethanol production and softer gasoline consumption, ethanol stocks increased just slightly by 10 million gallons.  ·        US export sales of grain and oilseeds were mixed- corn, grain sorghum, and wheat sales were down week over week, but soybean sales were up. Everything was within expectations even though there were net cancelations of wheats driven by soft red winter and white. ·        Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were again supportive this week with 48.3 million bushels of corn, 28.2 million bushels of soybeans and 11.6 million bushels of wheats. Everything was in the range of expectations, but soybeans continue to run a little stronger than we saw at this time last year. Topics: - Market recap - Commodities finding support - Federal Reserve planning on interest cuts - Corn, soybean acreage - USDA grain stocks & prospective plantings preview - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: U.S. corn acreage could come in higher than expected

This week Will and Ben breakdown the U.S. acreage picture for corn and soybeans as planting in parts of the Midwest heats up.  Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.36 - December 2024 corn down $.02 at $4.70  - May 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.87 - November 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.80 - May soybean oil up 2.11 cents at 48.70 cents/lb - May soybean meal down $6.20 at $331.90/short ton - May 2024 wheat down $.04 at $5.42 - July 2024 wheat down $.02 at $5.57 - May WTI Crude Oil up $4.46 at $81.60/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Initial jobless claims last week of 209,000 were down from expectations of 218,000 and 210,000 the week prior. ·        The Producer Price Index jumped 0.6% in February- the largest monthly gain since last August. This was above expectations of 0.3% rise in PPI. ·        Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was up across the board for the second consecutive week. Chicago Wheats (1.7%), corn (2.4%) and beans (2.6%). ·        Managed money traders increased their net short of Chicago Wheats 7,992 contracts while also decreasing their large net short of Chicago Corn 40,867 contracts and Chicago soybeans 16,862 contracts. Net gains for corn and soybean oil were much larger than expected by daily trade estimate, with soybeans close, while Chicago wheat more negative than expected. ·        US Crude oil stocks decreased for the first time in seven weeks- falling just slightly by 65 million gallons. Gasoline stocks fell much further- down 238 million gallons to extend the tightening to six consecutive weeks. Distillate fuel stocks were up just slightly by 37 million gallons. Gasoline demand was flat on the week after being up 6% week prior. ·        Ethanol production pulled back to 301 million gallons produced on the week- down 10 million gallons. It was also the lowest volume in 2 ½ months. It is expected 101.4 million bushels of corn were used in the process. With flat gasoline consumption and slightly lower ethanol production- ethanol stocks pulled back just slightly. ·        The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 186.2 million bushels of soybeans in February, a new monthly record for February and above the most bullish pre-report estimate. Soybean oil use in February of 2,027 million pounds was also a new record for the month. ·        US export sales last week were all within expectations but showed weekly increases for corn and soybean meal with weekly decreases for soybeans, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats. Corn was on the higher end of expectations with soybeans on the lower end. ·        Weekly US grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed last week. Everything was within expectations but corn was on the high side of expectations while wheats were on the low side. ·        USDA reported a two-point increase in Kansas winter wheat ratings this week, to 55% good/excellent, TX up 2% to 46% good to excellent; OK ratings feel four points to 61% good to excellent while CO rose 9% to 65% good to excellent.   Topics: - Market recap - Soybean market continues to find support - Potential acreage shifts - Planting discussion - Fed to meet, interest rates in balance - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: U.S. soybean market finds support.

This week Will and Ben look at USDA's most recent supply and demand estimates and breakdown movement in the soybean and wheat markets.  Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn up $0.10 at $4.40 - December 2024 corn up $.09 $4.72  - May 2024 soybeans up $.25 at $11.80 - November 2024 soybeans up $.27 at $11.73 - May soybean oil up 1.42 cents at 45.17 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $3.60 at $337.10/short ton - May 2024 wheat down $.18 at $5.46 - July 2024 wheat down $.08 at $5.59 - May WTI Crude Oil down $.83 at $77.34/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Economically initial jobless claims of 215,000 came in a little higher than expectations of 210,00 and the 202,000 the week prior. ·        The Federal Reserves preferred measure of inflation the PCE index rose to 0.3% in January as expected- up from 0.1% in December. ·        Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was down across the board for Chicago Wheats (-6.6%), corn (-7.7%) and beans (-11.1%). ·        Managed money positions of Chicago futures and options was mixed: for feed grains like wheat traders reduced their new short by buying back 11,983 contracts. The same was true for corn with managed money funds buying back 47,474 contracts to reduce the next short below -300,000 contracts again. It was also the first net buy for corn this calendar year. Managed money funds continued to sell off soybeans with another -23,976 net contracts. ·        Crop Insurance projected prices for 2024 spring crops are finalized. Corn projected price of $4.66 is 27% lower than last year while the soybean projected price of $11.55 is 16% lower than 2023 levels. ·        US Crude oil stocks increased for the fifth consecutive week while oil prices rallied on news of further OPEC+ production cuts. Gasoline stocks fell another 119 million gallons to extend the trend to a fourth week. Distillate fuel stocks were down 21 million gallons. Gasoline demand was up 3% on the week but 7% below the same week last year. ·        Ethanol production decreased just slightly to 317 million gallons down from 319 million gallons last week. Ethanol stocks increased 22 million gallons on the slightly smaller production. Corn used for ethanol production exceed the same period last year by 4% matching the increase USDA anticipates for the year. ·        US grain and oilseed export sales were all within expectations for the current marketing year. Corn, grain sorghum, soybean, and wheat sales were all up week over week. While the volumes increased on the week they still are not bullish. ·        US grain and oilseed export inspections were all within expectations. Soybean export inspections, while still at a seasonal deficit, have surprisingly experienced higher than expected volumes lately given the lack of fresh sales and logistical competition from South America.   Topics: - Market recap - Soybean market gets a boost - Wheat drops - Ethanol production - Inflation up on month - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Potential market impact of coming Biden administration fuel policy

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - May 2024 corn up $0.09 at $4.30 - December 2024 corn up $.06 $4.63  - May 2024 soybeans up $.10 at $11.55 - November 2024 soybeans up $.17 at $11.46 - May soybean oil up 0.15 cents at 45.17 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $4.90 at $333.50/short ton - May 2024 wheat down $.10 at $5.64 - July 2024 wheat down $.10 at $5.67 - May WTI Crude Oil up $1.08 at $78.17/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Economically initial jobless claims of 215,000 came in a little higher than expectations of 210,00 and the 202,000 the week prior. ·        The Federal Reserves preferred measure of inflation the PCE index rose to 0.3% in January as expected- up from 0.1% in December. ·        Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was down across the board for Chicago Wheats (-6.6%), corn (-7.7%) and beans (-11.1%). ·        Managed money positions of Chicago futures and options was mixed: for feed grains like wheat traders reduced their new short by buying back 11,983 contracts. The same was true for corn with managed money funds buying back 47,474 contracts to reduce the next short below -300,000 contracts again. It was also the first net buy for corn this calendar year. Managed money funds continued to sell off soybeans with another -23,976 net contracts. ·        Crop Insurance projected prices for 2024 spring crops are finalized. Corn projected price of $4.66 is 27% lower than last year while the soybean projected price of $11.55 is 16% lower than 2023 levels. ·        US Crude oil stocks increased for the fifth consecutive week while oil prices rallied on news of further OPEC+ production cuts. Gasoline stocks fell another 119 million gallons to extend the trend to a fourth week. Distillate fuel stocks were down 21 million gallons. Gasoline demand was up 3% on the week but 7% below the same week last year. ·        Ethanol production decreased just slightly to 317 million gallons down from 319 million gallons last week. Ethanol stocks increased 22 million gallons on the slightly smaller production. Corn used for ethanol production exceed the same period last year by 4% matching the increase USDA anticipates for the year. ·        US grain and oilseed export sales were all within expectations for the current marketing year. Corn, grain sorghum, soybean, and wheat sales were all up week over week. While the volumes increased on the week they still are not bullish. ·        US grain and oilseed export inspections were all within expectations. Soybean export inspections, while still at a seasonal deficit, have surprisingly experienced higher than expected volumes lately given the lack of fresh sales and logistical competition from South America. Topics: - Market recap - Crop market levels out - Managing input costs - Coming Biden administration fuel policy - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Managing operation costs as prices fall

This week Will and Ben discuss managing operation costs around falling prices. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - March 2024 corn down $0.13 at $4.07 - December 2024 corn down $.05 $4.57  - March 2024 soybeans down $.49 at $11.36 - November 2024 soybeans down $.30 at $11.29 - March soybean oil down 0.97 cents at 45.02 cents/lb - March soybean meal down $15.60 at $334.40/short ton - March 2024 wheat up $.11 at $5.77 - July 2024 wheat up $.11 at $5.77 - March WTI Crude Oil down $.44 at $77.54/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Economically initial jobless claims of 201,000 came in well below expectations of a week over week increase to 216,000. Existing home sales also beat the prior period and all expectations. ·        Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was up slightly for Chicago Wheats (0.9%) and corn (0.7%) and up more significantly for soybeans (3.2%). ·        Managed money traders continue to sell Chicago grains and oilseeds. The net short for corn increased 26,391 contracts which took them over the previous record in 2019. Managed money was also a seller of Chicago soybeans by 2,177 contracts and Chicago wheats by 18,135. ·        US Crude oil stocks increased for the fourth consecutive week to help tamper fears about increasing crude oil prices. Gasoline, distillate and ethanol stocks all fell on the week. Gasoline demand was basically flat on the week but remains 8% below last years levels. ·        Ethanol production increased again this week to 319 million gallons up just slightly from last weeks 318 million gallons. Corn used for ethanol production exceed the same period last year by 102 million bushels. ·        US grain and oilseed sales were pretty bearish to end the week Friday. Everything was lower week over week except grain sorghum (But they were coming off a negative week). US soybean and wheat sales came in below pre-report expectations and were bearish to the market. ·        US grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed to slightly bullish this week. Corn export inspections to all destinations exceeded expectations. Wheat shipments were also on the higher end thanks to increased hard red spring wheat shipments. Topics: - Market recap - Crop market continues downward spiral - South American production declines - U.S. export inspections - Operating with grain in the bin - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Crop markets likely to continue fall

This week Will and Ben track falling crop prices and where they might be headed. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - March 2024 corn down $0.12 at $4.20 - December 2024 corn down $.08 $4.62  - March 2024 soybeans down $.08 at $11.85 - November 2024 soybeans down $.09 at $11.59 - March soybean oil down 1.45 cents at 45.99 cents/lb - March soybean meal up $3.50 at $350.00/short ton - March 2024 wheat down $.27 at $5.66 - July 2024 wheat down $.29 at $5.66 - March WTI Crude Oil up $.86 at $77.97/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        Two separate measures of inflation came in hotter than anticipated. The Consumer Price Index came in at 3.1% year over year vs expectations of 2.9%. Similarly, the Producer Price Index came in at 0.9% month over month vs expectations of 0.1% increase and -0.1% in January.  ·        Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was down 2.3% for Chicago Wheats, up 2.1% for corn and up 1.4% for soybeans. ·        Managed money traders continue to sell Chicago corn and soybean contracts. The net short for corn increased 16,597 contracts which took them over the philosophical threshold of 300,000 contracts. The record was set in April 2019 at just over 322,000 contracts. Managed money was also a seller of Chicago soybeans by 4,200 contracts to 134,500 contracts. The record for soybeans was May 2019 at just under 190,000 contracts.  ·        Crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 505 million gallons for the week leaving them 7% below last year. Gasoline stocks declined 153 million gallons but 2% higher than this same week last year. Distillate stocks were down 80 million gallons and are 5% higher than last year. West Texas Intermediate Oil prices are creeping back up to $80 per barrel after reaching the low $70 range in early February. ·        Ethanol production increased again this week to 318 million gallons. Corn used for ethanol production exceed the same period last year by 97 million bushels. Ethanol stocks increased 43 million gallons.  ·        The National Oilseed Processors Association reported soybean crush numbers that disappointed the market. Soybean crush for January came in at 185.8 million bushels- four million less than the trade had anticipated, although still a January monthly record. Even though soybean crush was lower, soybean oil stocks also grew and were above all expectations implying January soybean oil use was rather bearish. ·        At USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the agency released their first balance sheets for 2024/25 marketing year. The numbers were bearish to new crop supplies but not as bearish as many in the industry were anticipating. ·        US grain and oilseed export sales were mixed last week. For corn- export sales of 51.4 million bushels were a 9-week high while soybean sales of 13.0 million bushels and wheat sales of 12.8 million bushels were both on the low end of expectations. There were net cancelations of grain sorghum sales amounting to 100,000 bushels for the current year and cancelations of all 2.4 million bushels of 2024/25 sales. There are no grain sorghum commitments for next year at this point after reaching 7.5 million bushels a few weeks ago.  Topics: - Market recap - Crop market continues general fall - Added trade support? - USDA Ag Outlook Forum bearish - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Recap of USDA's February global estimates

This week Will and Ben review USDA's most recent global supply and demand estimates and what they mean for U.S. agriculture. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - March 2024 corn down $0.10 at $4.32 - December 2024 corn down $.07 $4.70  - March 2024 soybeans down $.03 at $11.93 - November 2024 soybeans down $.08 at $11.68 - March soybean oil up 2.11 cents at 47.44 cents/lb - March soybean meal down $14.60 at $346.50/short ton - March 2024 wheat up $.03 at $5.93 - July 2024 wheat down $.08 at $5.95 - March WTI Crude Oil up $4.17 at $77.01/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        The Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected for the month at 3.1% year over year compared to expectations of 2.9%. ·        Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options continues to increase up 3.4% for Chicago wheats, 1.6% for Chicago corn, and 3.7% for Chicago soybeans. ·        Similarly, managed money traders continue to sell off corn, soybean and wheat positions. Traders sold another 1,962 of wheat contracts, 17,493 corn contracts, and 22,053 soybean contracts. These moves increased the net short positions held across the board. The net short in corn is just 2,300 contracts from hitting -300,000 net short positions and close to the all time net short set in April 2019. ·        Crude oil stocks rose by 5.5 million barrels last week but remain 4% below levels we typically we see this time of year. Conversely gasoline stocks and distillate stocks fell 3.1 and 3.2 million barrels, respectively. Ethanol stocks were up slightly to 24.8 million barrels. ·        Ethanol production continues to return from the low experienced during the January cold period at 1,033,000 barrels. Corn used for ethanol production is running 108 million bushels above the same last years pace and 65 million bushels above seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s current target.  ·        USDA’s February Supply and Demand Estimates were relatively bearish to the market but ended the day with some support. Ending stocks for US soybeans of 315 million bushels were above all pre-report expectations. Globally- cuts to Brazilian soybeans were not as large as expected. Corn and wheat estimates for the month were rather neutral. ·        US ag export sales were once again bearish for soybeans and slightly supportive to everything else. Soybean sales came in at 12.5 million bushels- below all pre-report expectations. Corn and wheat sales were both in line with expectations and up week over week. ·        Ukraine’s Farm Ministry estimated 2024 corn planting down 9% from last year based on their spring survey data. ·        Grain and oilseed export inspections this week were all within pre-report expectations, but on the top end. Soybean export inspections were slightly a surprise as last week’s volume was revised 12 million bushels higher. Export inspection volumes to date are up 160 million bushels for corn while down 332 million bushels for soybeans.   Topics: - Market recap - Inflation higher than expected - Global corn and soybeans carryout - South American production estimates - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Corn, soybeans continue downward trend

This week Will and Ben look at falling crop prices across the board and what it'll take to stabilize. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - March 2024 corn down $0.05 at $4.40 - December 2024 corn down $.01 $4.74  - March 2024 soybeans down $.29 at $11.94 - November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.80 - March soybean oil down 2.61 cents at 45.55 cents/lb - March soybean meal down $1.50 at $354.30/short ton - March 2024 wheat down $.06 at $5.93 - July 2024 wheat down $.03 at $6.09 - March WTI Crude Oil up $2.13 at $76.78/barrel   Weekly Highlights ·        US Gross Domestic Product grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023- down from the 4.9% in the third quarter but well above the 2% growth expected. Taking out the sharp recovery after the pandemic in 2020. The 3rd and 4th quarters are the strongest two quarters back-to-back since 2014. ·        Core Inflation at 0.2 month over month was right inline with expectations and core inflation year over year of 2.6% was as expected. ·        The housing market continues to run hot- with New home sales at 664,000 up from last month and expectations and pending home sales up to a huge number of 8.3% in December- the largest number since June 2020.  ·        It was another fairly risky week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased across the board for Chicago wheat (2.7%), Corn (5.7%), soybeans (6.5%), soybean oil (3.7%), soybean meal (3.4%), cotton (10.7%), and rough rice (0.4%). ·        Producers and Merchants increased their net positions of corn adding to the small net long while also adding net positions of soybeans shrinking their small net short. Producers and Merchants sold off net wheat contracts adding to the net short in Chicago wheat. ·        Managed money traders sold off another 4,743 contracts of Chicago corn while selling 15,045 contracts of soybeans to increase the net short there as well. Managed accounts added 26,518 contracts of cotton futures to take the small net short into a net long. ·        US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down another 388 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 206 million gallons on a 5% week over week reduction in gasoline demand. ·        As expected, US ethanol production pulled back to 240 million gallons- down from 310 million gallons the week prior due to the cold snap in the US. Even with the drastic drop in ethanol production-ethanol stocks increased due to the drop in gasoline demand and blending. ·        Exports sales were lower this week nearly across the board and bearish for soybeans. Only SRW wheat posted week over week gains. ·        Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections for the week were neutral for corn and soybeans, while bearish for wheats and grain sorghum. Corn, HRW and HRS wheats were the only commodities up week over week. Topics: - Market recap - Penciling out profit - South American production - South American second crop planting - Managing production cost - Corn acreage to fall - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Don't expect corn to move much higher

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - March 2024 corn down $0.02 at $4.45 - December 2024 corn down $.06 $4.75  - March 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $12.23 - November 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.97 - March soybean oil down 2.19 cents at 48.16 cents/lb - March soybean meal down $7.50 at $355.80/short ton - March 2024 wheat flat at $5.96 - July 2024 wheat down $.07 at $6.12 - March WTI Crude Oil up $2.02 at $74.67/barrel   Weekly Highlights  The December National Oilseed Processors Report showed their members crushed a record 195.3 million bushels of soybeans in December- up from 189 in November and 177.5 million last December. Cumulative soybean crush is running 40 million bushels of last years pace with USDA expected an 88-million-bushel year over year increase.   The US economy continues to show resistance. The Home Builder Confidence Index reported a reading of 44 increased from 39 in December and analysist expectations of 39. This signal that while contracting its not contracting as fast. Lower mortgage rates boosted confidence.  Consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level since July 2021 reflecting optimism regarding slowing inflation and rising incomes.  The US labor market remains tight as jobless claims fall under 200,000 and lowest level in 16 months. Employers may be adding fewer workers but they are holding on to the ones they have and paying higher wages.  It was a fairly risk on week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased for Chicago wheat (5.7%), Corn (8.1%), soybeans (4.9%), soybean oil (5.6%), soybean meal (6.2%), and cotton (2.7%) while rough rice fell (2.1%).  Producers and merchants increased their futures and options positions of Chicago corn more than 25,000 contracts with managed money increasing their net short position 29,819 contracts. The managed money net short for corn is quickly reaching a resistance level close to the largest net short in 15 years.  Managed money for soybeans also increased the net short 45.5 thousand contracts.  US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down 105 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 125 million gallons on a slight week over week reduction in gasoline demand.  US ethanol production pulled back to 310 million gallons but well above the 296 million gallons last year. Ethanol stocks have built to a 10 year high. The cold weather will likely slow US ethanol production over the next several weeks. Higher natural gas prices and lower ethanol prices are cutting into ethanol plant margins.  Export sales were bullish for corn and wheat last week while neutral for beans and grain sorghum. Sales were higher week over week across the board.  Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were rather neutral. Corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum were all down week over week, while total wheats were slightly higher.   Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed as of January 1 report showed all cattle on feed at 102.1% of last year.   Topics: - Market recap - Consumer sentiment at two-year high - Oilseed outlook - Managed money profit taking - Managing when to sell  - Record December soybean crush - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. ship attacked off the coast of Yemen adds wrench in Red Sea transport, ag and energy trade.

This week Will and special guest Pat reflect on the attack of a U.S. ship near Yemen means for trade between Europe and Asia.  Market recap (Changes on the week as of Tuesday's open): March corn down $.09 at $4.45 March soybeans down $.13 at 12.35 July wheat down $.01 at $5.96 March Crude oil up $2.12 at $73.10 Topics: Market recap U.S. ship attacked off Yemen coast Red Sea ag and energy shipment uncertainty  2024 U.S. ag income expectations Government due for shutdown without funding agreement Things to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Economic pressures impacting export attractiveness | Weekly Commodity Market Update for 12/26/23

This week Will and Ben break down how the effectiveness of interest rate hikes on U.S. inflation and the power of the dollar. Market changes over the week (as of Friday's close): - March 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.73 - January 2024 soybeans down $.28 at $12.99 - March 2024 wheat up $.07 at $6.16 - January WTI Crude Oil up around $1.70 around $73.49/barrel Weekly highlights: - Merry Christmas! - Markets continue holiday-time lull - Wetter than expected South American weather continues to pull on crop markets. Topics: - Market recap - Market continues holiday lull - Inflation rate down sharply year over year - 2024 interest rate expectations - U.S. dollar index impacting U.S. export attractiveness - Reports to watch Learn more about what's happening in the markets: https://brownfieldagnews.com/ag-markets/ See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A look at the future of ag land in the U.S. | Weekly Commodity Market Update for 12/19/23

This week Will and Ben dive into the future of farmland in the U.S. Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close): - March 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.77 - December 2024 corn down $0.02 $5.08 - January 2024 soybeans down $.09 at $13.27 - November 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $12.84 - January soybean oil down 0.60 cents at 50.64 cents/lb - January soybean meal up $4.90 at $413.20/short ton - March 2024 wheat down $.11 at $6.09 - July 2024 wheat down $.18 at $6.25 - January WTI Crude Oil down $1.87 at $71.73/barrel Weekly highlights: - Argentina reinstituted their export platform early last week after previous suspending it. Argentina’s current fell in value by nearly 119% going from 366 pesos to one dollar to 800 pesos to one US dollar. Their Congress is also considering a proposal to raise export taxes. Corn and wheat from 12% to 15%. - US ethanol production fell just slightly last week to 1,074 thousand barrels las week. Ethanol stocks rose to a 16-week high on back to back weeks of relatively high production. Corn used for ethanol for the marketing year is up 45 million bushels or 3.2% from the same period last year. - The Federal Reserve made not changes to interest rates of 5.25-5.50 during their December meeting as expected. The FEDs quarterly dot plot chart suggests 3 quarter point rate cuts in 2024. - Ag export sales were mixed for the most recent week of data. Corn and wheat export sales were supportive while soybean sales continue to remain in the 35–45-million-bushel range. Everything was within pre-report expectations. - The Biden Administration released their decision to use a methodology supportive of utilizing ethanol as well as edible soybean and canola oils as a feedstock in the production of sustainable aviation fuel. The administration plans to finalize all details by March. - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 189 million bushels of soybeans in November. The volume was slightly down from the all-time monthly record set in October, but still 3 million bushels higher than pre-report trade estimates. Soybean oil stocks exceeded expectations for the first time since April. - US grain and oilseed export shipments increased week over week for corn and beans while grain sorghum and wheat shipments declined. Corn and soybean volumes were on the top end of expectations. Topics: - Market recap - Market enters holiday lull - Future of U.S. ag land - Reports to watch Learn more about what's happening in the markets: https://brownfieldagnews.com/ag-markets/ See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Crop markets quietly watching South American growing conditions.

This week Will and Ben scope out the crop market's focus on South American weather. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - March 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.81 - December 2024 corn down $0.03 $5.10  - January 2024 soybeans up $.30 at $13.36 - November 2024 soybeans up $.15 at $12.88 - January soybean oil flat at 51.24 cents/lb - January soybean meal up $4.90 at $413.20/short ton - March 2024 wheat down $.11 at $6.09 - July 2024 wheat down $.18 at $6.25 - January WTI Crude Oil down $1.87 at $71.73/barrel   Weekly Highlights  US ethanol production increased to 316 million gallons from 297 million gallons the week before. Utilizing roughly 106.6 million bushels of corn- this was the largest week since mid-July.  Ag export sales were all with in pre-report expectations but down relative to the previous weeks volume across all grain and oilseeds.  The December WASDE Report contained almost no changes for grain and oilseed production and consumption.  Ag export inspections were all within pre-report expectations. However, it was a relatively low volume week for both corn and soybeans that fell below recent levels and historical norms. The historical difference is largest for soybeans.    Topics: - Market recap - Soybeans continue fall - Chinese export demand - South American moisture - South American planting update - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Markets focus on South American planting and weather

This week Will and Ben look at South America's crop market position as its planting season rolls on. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close): - December 2023 corn $0.30 at $4.85 - December 2024 corn up $0.09 $5.13 - January 2024 soybeans down $.24 at $13.06 - November 2024 soybeans down $.07 at $12.73 - December soybean oil up 0.18 cents at 51.24 cents/lb - December soybean meal down $28.30 at $408.30/short ton - March 2024 wheat up $.43 at $6.20 - July 2024 wheat up $.54 at $6.43 - January WTI Crude Oil down $1.40 at $73.60/barrel Weekly Highlights • It was a strong week of grain and oilseed export sales. Corn, soybeans, and wheats all came in above their pre-report expectations. All three were up week over week and above their recent sales volumes. • USDA’s October soybean crush came in at 201.4 million bushels, slightly above trade estimates of 201.1. It is a new record, besting the previous196.9 set in Dec. 2021), and the first time US monthly soybean crush has exceeded 200 million bushels. • Corn used for ethanol in October of 461 million bushels was up from 430 last month and 449 last year. • Export inspections were mixed this week and all surprises. Corn was bullish coming in above all pre-report expectations while soybeans and wheat came in below expectations. Topics: - Market recap - Soybeans continue fall - Chinese export demand - South American moisture - South American planting update - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Court overturns EPA's denial of more than 100 small refinery exemptions from 2022

This week Will and Ben breakdown a court's overturning of more than 100 of the EPA's small refinery exemption denials. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - December 2023 corn down $0.12 at $4.55 - December 2024 corn down $0.06 $5.04  - January 2024 soybeans down $.33 at $13.30 - November 2024 soybeans down $.21 at $12.80 - December soybean oil down 1.63 cents at 51.06 cents/lb - December soybean meal down $22.10 at $436.60/short ton - December 2023 wheat down $.09 at $5.34 - July 2024 wheat down $.10 at $5.89 - January WTI Crude Oil down $3.36 at $75.00/barrel Weekly Highlights · On Black Friday- the Fifth Circuit Court overturned the US Environmental Protection Agency denial of 31 small refinery exemptions from April 2022 and then another 69 exemptions in June of 2022, causing a major setback for the US ethanol industry. · US ethanol production decreased 7 million gallons week over week to 301 million gallons. Corn used for ethanol is estimated to be 101.3 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol so far this marketing year is up 16 million bushels or 1.5% compared to the same period last year but the surplus fell on the week. · Ag Export sales were all within expectations but below levels typically experienced at this time of the year. · Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions fell for corn (-1.5%), soybean oil (-2.2%), and cotton (-6.4%) while increasing for soybeans (+1.5%) and soybean meal (+3.9%). · Managed money traders decreased their net positions of Chicago futures and options for corn by 22,016 contracts to increase their net short and soybeans by 6,326 contracts to decrease their net long. Traders also had a net increase of 23,330 contracts to turn their net small net short of Chicago wheats into a small net long. · It was a disappointing week for US ag export inspections excluding milo. Corn came in below all pre-report expectations and was bearish to the market. Soybean and wheat export volumes were significantly below their typical volumes for this point in the year. Milo inspections were the largest since May 2022. · US winter wheat conditions improved just slightly on the week up to 338 from 333 last week (a perfect score is 500). There is low correlation between fall conditions and spring yields, but the entire crop is better this year than last year at this time and above the 3-year average. Kansas, the largest producer of winter wheats, has conditions score of 288 compared to 260 last year and a 3 year average of 318.   Topics: - Market recap - Grains, oilseeds down across board - EPA small refinery exemptions overturned - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Soybeans rally after early losses on the week

This week Will and Ben dive into several supporting factors for the soybean complex Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):  - December 2023 corn down $0.10 at $4.67 - December 2024 corn down $0.07 $5.10  - January 2024 soybeans down $.19 at $13.63 - November 2024 soybeans down $.06 at $13.01 - December soybean oil up 1.15 cents at 52.69 cents/lb - December soybean meal down $10.40 at $458.70/short ton - December 2023 wheat down $.36 at $5.43 - July 2024 wheat down $.31 at $5.99 - January WTI Crude Oil flat at $78.36/barrel   Weekly Highlights  US energy stocks were mixed- US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased for the fourth straight week while stocks of US gasoline, distillate fuels and ethanol were all down week over week. Quietly, the US set the all-time monthly record for domestic crude oil production in October 2023.  US ethanol production increased to 308 million gallons on the week-up slightly from 306 million gallons the week before. Corn used for ethanol is estimated to be 103.7 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol so far this marketing year is up 19.7 million bushels or 2% compared to the same period last year.  Last weeks grain and oilseed export sales report was bullish for corn while bearish for total wheats. The reported export sales volume for soybeans of 144.0 was the largest ever weekly volume- but was expected ahead of the report.  Ukraine reached an agreement with the British government to create a subsidized insurance program for shippers wanting to buy commodities at Ukrainian ports.  The October NOPA soybean crush report was supportive for the soybean complex. Reported soybean crush was an all-time monthly record- besting the previous record from December 2021. Soybean oil stocks declined for the sixth straight month.  Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions were up nearly across the board as cotton and rice were the only two down week over week at 16.9% and 4.9% respectively. Chicago wheats were flat while corn and soybeans were up 0.4% and 4% respectively.  Managed money traders sold off 4,579 contracts of Chicago wheats to increase the net short in wheats while buying 5,102 contracts of Chicago corn to decrease their net short and buying 19,315 contracts of Chicago soybeans to increase their net long.  Argentina elected a new President over the weekend that shocked the two main political parties. The President elect has proposed a series of economic reforms that could grow the agricultural economy and impact grain trade flows.  US grain and oilseed export inspections were down week over week for corn and soybeans while up week over week for grain sorghum and wheat. All were within pre-report expectations.  Topics: - Market recap - Ukrainian trade finds support - Argentina elects surprise President with aggressive ag policy - Record soybean crush and export numbers - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: USDA report shakes up market

This week Will and Ben break down how a USDA report shook up the markets last week. Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close): - December 2023 corn flat at $4.77 - December 2024 corn flat at $5.17 - January 2023 soybeans up $.18 at $13.82 - November 2024 soybeans up $.03 at $13.07 - December soybean oil up .74 cents at 51.54 cents/lb - December soybean meal up $31.60 at $469.10/short ton - December 2023 wheat up $.04 at $5.79 - July 2024 wheat down $.05 at $6.30 - January WTI Crude Oil down $2.52 at $78.39/barrel Weekly Highlights • After a disappointing week of Ag Export sales two weeks ago, last week’s export sales of grains and oilseeds were up week over week. Everything was within expectations. • The November USDA Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) raised US corn and soybean yields from October and above expectations. USDA offset the 170 million increases in corn production with 125 million bushels in added demand. For soybeans, the added soybean production of 25 million bushels carried through to higher ending stocks. • Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions was flat for wheats, up 3.1% for corn, and up 3.9% for soybeans. • Managed money traders sold off another 24,156 contracts of US corn to increase their net short by 16.7% and sold off 7,952 contracts of Chicago wheats to increase their net short while buying 45,445 positions of Chicago soybeans increasing their net long. • US grain and oilseed export inspections were rather neutral to slightly bearish. Soybean export sales were bearish compared to expectations, but there haven’t been the export sales to justify higher soybean export inspections. • US harvest is nearly finished with 95% of beans harvested and 88% of corn harvested. • US winter wheat conditions are off to a much better start this year than the last two years. Winter wheat conditions of 331 compared to last year’ 291 score and a 5-yr average of 328. Reminder- conditions in the fall have low correlation to yields next summer. Topics: - Market recap - Takeaways from USDA's recent reports - U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates rise - U.S. corn demand estimates rise - Reports to watch See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Tight soybean market to get tighter | Weekly Commodity Market Update for 9/19/23

This week, Will and Ben look at what a tightening soybean picture means as farmers roll into harvest. Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close): • December 2023 corn down $.14 at $4.71 • November soybeans down $.53 at $13.16 • October soybean oil up 1.05 cents at 62.39 cents/lb • October soybean meal down $15.60 at $390.40/short ton • December 2023 wheat up $.07 at $5.91 • July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.40 • September WTI Crude Oil up $3.41 at $89.28/barrel Weekly highlights: • US energy stocks were up for crude oil (166 mil. gal.), gasoline (190 mil. gal.) and distillate fuel (165 mil. gal) after weekly gasoline demand fell hard, down 11% week over week. • Ethanol production picked up 7 million gallons week over week to settle back over 300 million gallons of weekly production at 305 million gallons. Ethanol stocks decreased signaling rather strong ethanol exports. • The September USDA Supply and Demand report was rather neutral for domestic balance accounts. 2023/24 corn stocks increased on higher acreage stocks more than offsetting a 1.3 bu/acre reduction in yield and smaller beginning stocks increasing ending stocks 19 million bushels. Soybean stocks for 2023/24 continue to tighten down another 25 million bushels this month. • The first week of the 2023/24 marketing year showed solid weekly sales volumes, but early sales were such that most commodities are starting with an annual deficit. Corn (-6%), Bean (-3%), and all wheats (-3%). • The National Oilseed Processors Association announced their members crushed 161.5 million bushels of soybeans in August- down from 173.3 in July and 165.5 last August. • Open interest positions of Chicago commodities were mostly up on the week. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil and wheats saw increases. • Producers and merchants were active buyers on the week with their net short position of futures and options shrinking by nearly 42%. Conversely, managed money traders were net sellers increasing their net short by almost 44%. • US Ag Export inspections were mixed with corn and soybeans up week over week with grain sorghum and wheat down. For corn, this was the largest weekly volume since early July. • US corn harvest is now 9% complete with corn crop conditions deteriorating further. • US soybean harvest is now 5% complete with conditions declining only slight. Topics: • Market recap • USDA WASDE review • Tightness in soybean market • Soybean crush down • Harvest picks up • Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: https://brownfieldagnews.com/ See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Preview of USDA July Reports: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 7/11/23

This week, Will and Ben preview USDA's July supply and demand reports. ----- Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close): - September corn up $.04 at $4.92 - December 2023 corn up $.06 at $4.99 - August soybeans down $.12 at $14.55 - November soybeans down $.32 at $13.45 - August soybean oil up 1.66 cents at 65.33 cents/lb - August soybean meal down $5.90 at $405.80/short ton - September 2023 wheat up $.05 at $6.46 - July 2024 wheat down $.01 at $6.90 - June WTI Crude Oil up $2.72 at $72.96/barrel Weekly highlights: - US energy stocks were down on the week on higher use. US ethanol production increased slightly to 312 million gallons on the week, but not enough to keep ethanol stocks from declining 30 million gallons. The 105 million bushels of estimated corn use is the largest volume of the calendar year and second highest of the marketing year. - US Ag Export Sales for 2022/23 were mixed week over week with increases for corn and decreases for soybeans. However, 2023/24 export sales were relatively bullish with strong corn and soybean sales and wheat sales above all expectations. - Fund holding positions fell hard on the most recent week of data. Corn producer and merchant positions increased as producers looked for coverage while managed money traders sold off 71,054 positions taking corn from a net long to a net short. The pattern was also true for soybeans but to a lesser degree. - Weekly ag export inspections for the week ending July 6, 2023, were mixed for row crops- bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and bullish for wheats particularly soft red wheat. - US crop conditions increased as expected on the week. The corn condition composite score rose 7 points to 347, but below the 363 last year. Soybeans increased 2 points to 339 compared to 361 last year. Rice increased 11 points to 386. - 46% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested compared to 62% at this time last year. The eastern corn belt remains well behind normal. Topics: - Market recap - U.S. Energy stocks and usage - U.S. Export sales mixed - USDA July WASDE preview - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

USDA report surprises market with soybean acreage drop: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 7/4/23

This week, Will and Ben break down how USDA's 4 million acre drop in soybeans is impacting the market. ----- Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close): - September corn down $.96 at $4.88 - December 2023 corn down $.95 at $4.93 - August soybeans up $.43 at $14.67 - November soybeans up $.54 at $13.77 - August soybean oil up 5.67 cents at 63.67 cents/lb - August soybean meal up $2.20 at $411.70/short ton - September 2023 wheat down $.97 at $6.41 - July 2024 wheat down $.81 at $6.91 - June WTI Crude Oil up $.70 at $70.24/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production was flat at 309 million gallons on the week. The 104.2 million bushels of estimated corn use is tied for largest volume of the calendar year. - The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report for June 1 reported a breeding herd at 99.6% of last year- a number stronger than anticipated. Lower farrowing intentions in the upcoming quarter were offset with higher pigs per litter. - US Ag Export Sales were up week over week for corn, grain sorghum, and wheats but down for the entire soybean complex. Everything was within trade expectations but on the lower end continuing a trend of sluggish export sales. - A Derecho hit approximately 10-12% of Midwest corn area on Thursday. - US Grain Stocks as of June 1 for corn, soybeans, and wheat all came in on the lower than expectations. US wheat stocks of 580 million bushels were bullish- falling below all expectations. - USDA’s 2023 Acreage Report provided multiple surprises to markets Friday none more consequential than a 4-million-acre reduction in US soybean acres compared to both the average trade guess and the March planting intentions report. - Open interest futures and options positions fell hard for most crops on the most recent week: Corn (-9.8%), Soybeans (-12.4%), Soybean Oil (-9.5%), Soybean Meal (-6.6%), and Rough Rice (-6.5%). Chicago wheats and cotton were flat and up 3.3%, respectively. - Managed money traders increased their net shorts of Chicago wheats, corn, and cotton while increasing their net longs of soybeans, soybean oil and rough rice. - AG export inspections were up week over week for corn, soybeans and wheat while down for grain sorghum, but all within expectations. Topics: - Market recap - USDA surprises in acreage report - USDA updates grain stocks - Derecho hits Midwest - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market update for 6/27/2023

Dryness supporting crop prices: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 6/20/23

This week, Will and Ben talk the mindset of the market as crop conditions fall. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - July corn up $.25 at $6.42 - December 2023 corn up $.45 at $5.94 - July soybeans up $.97 at $14.69 - November soybeans up $1.26 at $13.35 - July soybean oil up 5.11 cents at 59.09 cents/lb - July soybean meal up $20.70 at $418.10/short ton - July 2023 wheat up $.48 at $6.81 - July 2024 wheat up $.40 at $7.30 - June WTI Crude Oil up $3.65 at $71.24/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production of 299 million gallons was down 6 million gallons week over week and the below 312 million gallons produced this same week last year. - The Federal Reserve maintained their 5-5.25% short term interest rate target at their June meeting while signaling rates could increase another 50 basis points in 2023. - US ag export sales last week, except for wheat, were pretty strong for this time of year. Wheat sales were bearish- falling below all expectations. At 17.6 million bushels- this was the highest soybean volume in 3 months. - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 177.9 million bushels of soybeans in May- up 2 million bushels from the average trade guess. The soybean oil stocks volume came in below all pre-report estimates and was bullish to the market. - Open interest positions of Chicago futures and options positions were mixed- flat for Chicago wheats, down for corn, soybeans, soybean meal and rough rice, but down cotton and soybean oil. - There were net long gains for corn and soybeans while producer and merchants increased their net shorts by 32 and 24.4% respectively. Topics: - Market recap - Crop conditions - Drought conditions - Export update - EPA Renewable Volume Obligations - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Federal Reserve signals longer-lasting rate hikes: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 6/13/23

This week, Will and Ben look at expectations for Federal Reserve week. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - July corn up $.20 at $6.17 - December 2023 corn up $.12 at $5.49 - July soybeans up $.22 at $13.72 - November soybeans up $.30 at $12.09 - July soybean oil up 4.72 cents at 53.98 cents/lb - July soybean meal down $3.80 at $397.40/short ton - July 2023 wheat up $.09 at $6.33 - July 2024 wheat up $.04 at $6.90 - June WTI Crude Oil down $4.86 at $67.23/barrel Weekly highlights: - It was a mixed week in the energy sector- ending fuel stocks were largely up across the board including a 26-million-gallon increase to US ethanol stocks. Ethanol production rose 10 million gallons on the week to the largest weekly volume of the calendar year. - US export sales were fairly consistent on the week- the exception being wheat sales which were bullish, well above all pre-report expectations. - Open interest position of Chicago futures and options positions were mixed- flat for Chicago wheats, up for corn, soybeans, and soybean meal, but down for soybean oil, cotton, and rough rice. - Managed money accounts largely added contracts across the board- the exception: Chicago wheats which turned their small net long into a small net short. - USDA’s June Supply and Demand update include cuts to exports- corn down another 50 million bushels after being cut 75 million bushels in May. Soybean exports down 15 million bushels. 2022/23 corn imports were reduced 15 million bushels. The national wheat yield was increased 0.2 of a bushel to 44.9 bushel/acre. - US Ag Export inspections were as expected this week, but down week over week for corn, soybeans and all wheats combined. - Crop conditions deteriorated a little on the week- corn, soybeans and rice all down 3% to 61%, 59% and 67% good to excellent respectively. Cotton conditions were down 2% week over week to 49% - Winter wheat harvest progresses with 8% completed. Topics: - Market recap - Oil prices - Fuel demand - Export update - USDA supply and demand report adjustments - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

June USDA supply and demand report preview: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 6/6/23

This week, Will and Ben talk USDA report expectations. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - July corn down $.06 at $5.97 - December 2023 corn up $.09 at $5.37 - July soybeans up $.29 at $13.50 - November soybeans up $.08 at $11.79 - July soybean oil up 1.61 cents at 49.26 cents/lb - July soybean meal up $3.20 at $401.20/short ton - July 2023 wheat up $.23 at $6.24 - July 2024 wheat up $.24 at $6.86 - June WTI Crude Oil up $1.41 at $72.09/barrel Weekly highlights: - Oil prices are up this week after a new OPEC+ deal released Sunday became public. Production cuts already in place were extended along with Saudi Arabia announcing that they would reduce production 1 million barrels per day. - US gasoline demand was down 4% week over week and crude oil stocks, distillate fuel and ethanol all rose on the week. - US ethanol production increased 6 million gallons to 295 million gallons but remains below the comparable week experienced last year. - In USDA’s grain crushing report- corn used for ethanol in April was down 5% from March and 1% from April 2022. - Soybeans crushed for crude oil in April was 187 million bushels- down 11 million bushels from March but up 6 million bushels from April 2022. - US ag export sales were higher week over week for corn and soybeans. Grain sorghum experienced a 3-month high while wheat export sales were bearish in the old crop falling below all expectations. - Open interest position of Chicago futures and options positions were mixed but pretty flat across our commodities- wheat (+0.0%), corn (-0.7%), soybeans (+0.6%), soybean oil (+0.5%), soybean meal (-0.1%), cotton (+2.0%), and rough rice (+3.1%). - Managed money accounts largely moderated on the week with wheat and corn both decreasing their net short while soybeans decreased their net long. - Weekly Ag Export Inspections were neutral on the week as everything was within expectations and close to the same volumes as the week prior. - Nearly everything that is going to get planted this year except for cotton will be planted by the end of the week- corn at 96%, soybeans at 91%, and spring wheat at 93%. Only 71% of the cotton acres are planted with flooding in the southern plains preventing any progress. - This was the second week of conditions ratings for corn and the conditions index fell to 368 vs 374 last week and 383 on average. 500 is a perfect score. - Winter wheat harvest has started with 4% completed- but rains in the southern plains will slow progress this week. Topics: - Market recap - Oil prices - Fuel demand - Export update - USDA supply and demand report adjustments - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Negative cash flow could be ahead: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/30/23

This week, Will and Ben discuss farmers' financial future. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - July corn up $.32 at $6.03 - December 2023 corn up $.19 at $5.28 - July soybeans down $.20 at $13.21 - November soybeans down $.26 at $11.71 - July soybean oil down more than 1 cent at 47.65 cents/lb - July soybean meal down $14.20 at $398.00/short ton - July 2023 wheat down $.05 at $6.01 - July 2024 wheat up $.01 at $6.62 - June WTI Crude Oil down $1.37 at $70.68/barrel Weekly highlights: - US gasoline demand surged higher two weeks ago- up 6% week over week and pulled down US energy stocks across the board. - US ethanol production fell just slightly on the week at 289 million gallons produced. US corn used for ethanol remains below the pace to hit USDA’s target by about 40 million bushels. - US Ag Export sales were all within expectations this week but continued a trend of declining export sales. Corn sales were negative for the second straight week in a row and third week out of four. Wheat sales were negative for the second week in a row. Topics: - Market recap - Crude Oil adjustments - Fuel demand - Export update - Cash flow expectations - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. planting well ahead: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/23/23

This week, Will and Ben check up on planting progress. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - July corn down $.21 at $5.71 - December 2023 corn down $.06 at $5.09 - July soybeans down $.59 at $14.41 - November soybeans down $.34 at $11.97 - July soybean oil down less than 1 cent at 48.77 cents/lb - July soybean meal down $18.70 at $412.20/short ton - July 2023 wheat down $.54 at $6.06 - July 2024 wheat down $.42 at $6.61 - June WTI Crude Oil up $.88 at $72.05/barrel Weekly highlights: - US gasoline demand was down 4% week over week and down 1% compared to this same week last year. Stocks of crude oil minus the strategic petroleum reserve increased, while gasoline stocks were down, and distillate and ethanol stocks were basically flat. - US ethanol production increased 6 million gallons last week and used roughly 97.8 million bushels of corn. The volume was down from last year and the 5-year average. - The Black Sea Grain Initiative was officially renewed for another 60 days putting some bearish pressure on US cash prices. - US Ag Export sales last week were rather disappointing to old crop markets- net cancelations of corn, milo, and wheats while soybeans were at the bottom end of the trader expectations. Wheat sales were bearish falling below all expectations. - US agricultural export inspections last week were steady to bullish with corn on the top end of expectations and wheats exceeding all pre-report expectations. Soybeans were down week over week and on the lower end of pre-report expectations. - Open interest futures and options positions were up across the board last week for the second week in a row: Chicago Wheats (up just slightly), Corn (+4.4%), Soybeans (+6.9%), Soybean oil (+10.0%), Soybean meal (+3.6%), Cotton (+5.0%), and Rough Rice (+5.0%) - Managed money holdings of futures and options positions were mixed with Chicago wheats shedding another 10,275 contracts following 15,481 contracts last week. Corn bought back 17,658 but still maintain a net short position. Soybeans shed some more positions, down 24,517 to shrink their net long. - Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report reported 11.6 million head or 97% on feed as of May 1 which was just a smidge higher than the pre-report estimates of 96.7%. Slightly higher April placements led to the higher than expected cattle on feed number. - USDA’s crop progress report showed 81% of the nation’s corn planted- up another 16% from last week and ahead of the 5-year average for this time of the year. - 66% of the soybean crop planted- up 17% on the week and above average of 52% for this time of year. - Spring wheat planting is starting to catch up at 64% of the spring wheat has been planted- behind the average of 73%. I wonder how much of this is planting and how much is farmers deciding to switch crops or take prevent plant. - Winter wheat conditions as a whole were a little better than last week with the good to excellent combined rating up 25 to 31%. Topics: - Market recap - Corn and soybean planting - Fuel demand - Export update - Black Sea corridor extended - Wheat condition - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Midwest planting ahead of pace: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/9/23

This week, Will and Ben discuss strong planting progress. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - July corn up $.12 at $5.96 - December 2023 corn up $.04 at $5.29 - July soybeans up $.06 at $14.33 - November soybeans down $.03 at $12.72 - July soybean oil up 1.84 cents at $53.65 - July soybean meal down $6.70 at $426.90/short ton - July wheat up $.36 at $6.54 - June WTI Crude Oil down $2.87 at $72.74/barrel Weekly highlights: - The surge in US gasoline demand was rather short lived. After increasing 12% the week before- gasoline demand fell back down 9%. Energy stocks were down across the board outside gasoline that rose on the lower demand - US ethanol production was slightly up on the week (+3 million gallons) however corn used for ethanol continues to lag the pace needed. - The Federal Reserve did increase their short-term rate another quarter point as expected last week. The range is 5-5.25% right now. - It was another bearish week for US corn sales as they came in net negative for an April week for the first time in 20 years. China canceled 22 million bushels on the week. All other commodities were within expectations. bearish - Open interest positions were mixed on the week: wheats (flat), corn (+3.2%), soybeans (-2.3%), soybean oil +2.6%), Soybean meal (-1.9%), Cotton (+1.5%) and rough rice (-2%). - Managed money holdings of futures and options positions were also largely down across the board (wheats being the exception) headlined with corn down 102,849 net positions. Soybeans shed 30,835 positions and soybean meal down 25,816 net positions. - US grain export inspections were on the lower end of expectations and bearish for corn with the seasonal deficit on old crop exports continuing to grow. - USDA’s crop progress report showed 49% of the nation’s corn planted- up 23% from last week and above the 5-year average for this time of the year. Corn planting is just about done in Missouri (92%) compared to Dakota’s where planting hasn’t really started. - 35% of the soybean crop planted- up 16% on the week and above average of 21% for this time of year. - Conditions for winter wheats increased in the Pacific northwest while largely falling across the plains. The full composite conditions index which accounts for all ratings fell just slightly. Topics: - Market recap - Black Sea trade corridor negotiations - Corn and soybean planting - Fed continues rate hike - USDA May supply and demand preview - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

EPA opens E15 sales for summer: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/2/23

This week, Will and Ben discuss continued stress on ag supply chains. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - July corn down $.23 at $5.84 - December 2023 corn down $.21 at $5.25 - July soybeans down $.09 at $14.27 - November soybeans up $.04 at $12.75 - July soybean oil up $.01 at $51.81 - July soybean meal down $3.80 at $433.60/short ton - July wheat down $.37 at $6.18 - June WTI Crude Oil down $2.49 at $75.61/barrel Weekly highlights: - US gasoline demand surged for the most recent week,representing maybe some optimism in the general economy. US gasoline demand was up 12% week over week. With strong demand- US stocks of crude oil, gasoline, distillate fuel, and ethanol were pulled down. - US ethanol, however, fell a little on the week at 284 million gallons down from 301 million gallons the week prior. - Export sales for the 2022/23 marketing year were neutral on the week- everything was within expectations and pretty much in line with the week before. Export for 2023/24 were pretty much nonexistent though with only wheat seeing some new crop sales. - There is a general risk off sentiment in the commodity markets ahead of any reactions to moves by the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee this coming week- open interest positions were down nearly across the board: wheats (flat), corn (-7.2%), soybeans (-12.4%), soybean oil (-5.2%), Soybean meal (-4.4%), Cotton (+0.5%) and rough rice (-5.7%). - Managed money holdings of futures and options positions were also largely down across the board: corn (-64,731) and creating a rare net short in the complex, soybeans (-47,574), soybean oil (-3,812), and soybean meal (-19,309). Chicago wheats decreased their net short adding 15,612 net contracts. - Weekly grain export inspections were steady to bullish on the week (after a couple bearish weeks). Corn export inspections exceeded all expectations and were a marketing year high, while soybeans, wheat, and grain sorghum inspections were all within range. - Soybeans crushed for crude oil in March were 198 million bushels- up from both February of this year by 22 million bushels and March of 2022 by 5 million bushels. - Corn consumed for fuel alcohol in March was 10% higher than February but 3% below March 2022 matching the lower ethanol production numbers. - USDA’s crop progress report showed 26% of the nation’s corn planted- up 12% from last week and right at the 5-year average for this time of the year. Corn planting is just about done in Missouri (80%) compared to Dakota’s where planting hasn’t started. - 19% of the soybean crop planted- up 10% on the week and above average of 11% for this time of year. - Conditions for winter wheats increased in the Pacific northwest while largely falling across the plains. The full composite conditions index was stable but with the same regional changes. Topics: - Market recap - Ethanol outlook - Fuel prices - Global ethanol demand - Fed interest rate hike preview - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Supply chain issues lurking: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 4/25/23

This week, Will and Ben discuss continued stress on ag supply chains. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn down $.27 at $6.49 - December 2023 corn down $.20 at $5.46 - May soybeans down $.52 at $14.65 - November soybeans down $.40 at $12.71 - May soybean oil down $1.82 at $52.75 - May soybean meal down $25.90 at $439.80/short ton - May wheat down $.55 at $6.41 - July wheat down $.52 at $6.55 - June WTI Crude Oil down $2.96 at $78.10/barrel Weekly highlights: - US energy stocks were mixed on the week. Crude oil and distillate stocks were down week over week while ethanol and gasoline stocks rose. Gasoline demand was down 5% on the week. - US ethanol production rebounded 19 million gallons to 301 million gallons on the week. The first week above 300 million gallons in 2 months. With the decrease in disappearance and increase in production- ethanol stocks rose. - Old-crop corn and soybean export sales both disappointed this week at 12.3 and 3.7 million bushels respectively. Both feel well short of trade estimate ranges and comparative sales last year. For corn, this was a 3-month low. - Cattle on Feed as of April 1 came in at 11.612 million head or 95.6% of last year- slightly above expectations of 95.0%. - Open interest futures and options positions for Chicago soybeans fell by 3% again last week, while corn was slightly up, and Chicago wheats were nearly flat. Neutral - Managed money positions were nearly up across the board- the exception soybean oil- increased net long of Chicago corn by 22,322 positions, increased net long of Chicago soybeans by 9,760 positions and increased net long of soybean meal by 10,002 on their large net long positions. - US ag export inspected volumes this week were all within expectations with wheat exports up week over week but corn, soybeans and grain sorghum all down. -Neutral - USDA’s crop progress report showed 14% of the nation’s corn planted- up 6% from last week and above the 5-year average, 9% of the soybean crop planted above average of 4% for this time of year. - The progress report also showed 26% of US winter wheat rated as good to excellent- down 1%. Topics: - Market recap - Lowering open interest in soybeans - High Mississippi River levels - West coast port tensions - U.S. imports - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Early U.S. planting outlook: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 4/18/23

This week, Will and Ben check in on the early part of planting season across the cornbelt. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn up $.22 at $6.76 - December 2023 corn up $.04 at $5.66 - May soybeans up $.35 at $15.87 - November soybeans up $.02 at $13.11 - May soybean oil flat at 54.57 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $15.00 at $465.70/short ton - May wheat up $.18 at $6.96 - July wheat up $.17 at $7.07 - June WTI Crude Oil up $1.29 at $81.06/barrel Weekly highlights: - Geopolitical headlines continue to influence the corn and wheat market- announcements last week of more old crop corn sales to China and Russia stating they would not renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative supported prices. Additionally- Poland, Hungry, and Slovakia all announced they would ban imports of Ukrainian food grains. - Last week’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates were a little bearish to corn and soybeans as traders had anticipated smaller domestic ending stocks. Ending stocks for both were flat on the month. - Argentina’s corn production was reduced another 3 million metric tons to 37 mmt while Argentina’s soybean production was down another 5 million metrics tons to 27 mmt. - US energy stocks were stable on the week with domestic gasoline demand down 4% week over week. US ethanol production fell to 282 million gallons. - Ag export sales were all on the lower end of expectations. For corn, the 20.8 million bushels were the lowest weekly volume since the second week of January. - Open interest futures and options positions for Chicago soybeans fell 3% last week, while corn was slightly up, and Chicago wheats were nearly flat. - Managed money traders bought back positions of feed grains while selling off Chicago soybean positions. - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed a 15-month high of 185.8 million bushels. This is the second straight month- soybean crush has exceeded last year’s comparable months figure. Soybean oil stocks were slightly less than anticipated. - Weekly Ag export inspections were mixed- strong for corn and weak for soybeans and wheat. Corn exceeded all pre-report expectations. - USDA’s crop progress report showed 8% of the nation’s corn planted- up 5% from last week and above the 5-year average, 4% of the soybean crop planted above average of 1% for this time of year, 38% of the rice crop planted also above average, and 8% of the nation’s cotton crop was planted- slightly behind normal. - The progress report also showed 27% of US winter wheat rated as good to excellent- flat on the week- however, incorporating all categories showed conditions deteriorated a little bit. Topics: - Market recap - USDA's supply and demand reports recap - U.S. planting progress - Argentinian crop estimates dropping - Wheat market turmoil - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Measuring the impact of USDA's supply and demand report: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 4/11/23

This week, Will and Ben look at the impact USDA's April supply and demand report might have as farmers ratchet up planting. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn down $.03 at $6.54 - December 2023 corn down $.05 at $5.62 - May soybeans up $.35 at $15.87 - November soybeans down $.23 at $13.09 - May soybean oil down 2.20 cents at 54.48 cents/lb - May soybean meal down $13.50 at $450.70/short ton - May wheat down $.15 at $6.78 - July wheat down $.16 at $6.90 - June WTI Crude Oil down $.68 at $79.77/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production was flat on the week and matched the same volume produced exactly one year ago. Stocks for US energy products dropped across the board. - Ag export sales were bearish for soybeans coming in below all trade expectations. There were also net cancelations of new crop soybeans. Corn was at the top end of their range and above the week prior. - Open interest of futures and options positions were flat for Chicago corn, soybeans, and wheats as activity has moderated as of late. - Management money traders bought back nearly 35 net contracts of corn creating a small net long. Traders also increased net long positions in soybeans by 46.4 thousand and increased net short positions of Chicago wheats. - Weekly export inspections were all within expectations. Corn was down week over week while grain sorghum, soybeans, and wheat were all up week over week. - USDA’s crop progress report showed 3% of the nation’s corn planted- up 1% and above the 5-year average. Significant progress is expected this week. - The progress report also showed 27% of US winter wheat rated as good to excellent- down 1% on the week. Topics: - Market recap - USDA's World Ag Supply and Demand Expectations report - Argentinian crop estimates dropping - California shipping pause - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

USDA report to set tone for spring markets: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 4/4/23

This week, Will and Ben review new planting and production estimates in the U.S. and South America. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn up $.09 at $6.57 - December 2023 corn down $.02 at $5.67 - May soybeans up $.70 at $15.22 - November soybeans up $.37 at $13.32 - May soybean oil up 2.23 cents at 56.68 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $11.80 at $464.20/short ton - May wheat down $.08 at $6.93 - July wheat down $.06 at $7.06 - June WTI Crude Oil up $7.42 at $80.45/barrel Weekly highlights: - US stocks of crude oil, gasoline and ethanol all fell on the most recent week with domestic gasoline use up 6% over the most recent two-week period. Along with these changes ethanol production was up just slightly for the week. - Ag Export sales were all within expectations last week- soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat were all up week over week while corn was down from the extremely strong week the week prior. - Last week's 1st quarter hogs and pigs report- showed fewer grain consuming hogs over the next two quarters compared to last year. - March 1 grain and oilseed stocks report came in below trade expectations and bullish for corn and soybeans while above expectations and bearish for wheat. - USDA’s planting intentions report showed farmers intend to plant larger corn, soybean, and wheat acres in 2023 compared to 2022. Everything was within trader expectations, but corn and wheat were at the bearish end of expectations while soybeans were at the bullish end. - Private estimates for Brazil’s corn crop - Open interest of futures and options positions decreased 1% for corn and increased 2.2% for soybeans. Management money traders bought back some net contracts of corn decreasing the overall net short, traders decreased the net long in soybeans, and increased the net short in Chicago wheats. Managed money traders also decreased their long holdings of soybean meal contracts. - It was announced over the weekend that Argentina will start a new “soy dollar” preferential exchange rate ag exports starting Monday, April 3. It is expected to last 90 days. - Ag export inspections were bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and bearish for combined US wheat. - USDA’s first crop progress report of the season showed 2% of the nation’s corn crop planted (matching average), 4% of cotton acres planted (down from 5%), and 17% of rice acres planted (up from 14% on average). - The progress report also showed 28% of US winter wheat rated as good to excellent- down from 30% last year. Topics: - Market recap - USDA's planting intentions up over last year - Argentina opens new program to encourage soybean sales - Brazilian corn production - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

USDA reports, estimates to set tone for spring markets: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 3/28/23

This week, Will and Ben preview one of the top USDA report days of the year with prospective plantings and grain stocks coming on Friday. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn up $.15 at $6.48 - December 2023 corn up $.09 at $5.69 - May soybeans down $.34 at $14.52 - November soybeans down $.14 at $12.95 - May soybean oil down 3.44 cents at 54.45 cents/lb - May soybean meal down $10.30 at $452.40/short ton - May wheat up $.01 at $7.01 - July wheat up $.04 at $7.12 - June WTI Crude Oil up $4.97 at $73.03/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production fell 5 million gallons on the week to 293 million gallons on the week- ethanol stocks decreased slightly on the week but remain 9% higher than the 5-year average. Finished motor gasoline was up 4% week over week. - There were almost 122 million bushels of old crop corn sold to international destinations for the most recent week of official reports- the highest single weekly value in exactly 2 years. China accounted for a little over 2/3s of those sales. The corn export deficit is shrinking and now is roughly 100 million bushels below USDA’s current target. The rest of the grain and oilseed export sales were bearish. Soybeans and wheat fell below all pre-report expectations while grain sorghum had net sales cancelations. - After a couple anxiety filled weeks in the market highlighted with some regional bank failures and the federal reserve increasing their benchmark rate another 25 basis points last week- funds moderated in Chicago corn and soybeans decreasing the net short in corn and decreasing the net long in soybeans. - Ag export inspections were mixed on the week- below all expectations for corn, at the top end of expectations for soybeans and wheats. - This week’s Hard Red Winter wheat ratings were steady for Kansas at 19% good to excellent- Oklahoma up 5% while Texas was down 5%. The biggest changes were in Soft Red Winter Wheat- Illinois was down 24% to 58% good to excellent. Topics: - Market recap - Russian Ukrainian grain corridor extended - Continued Black Sea uncertainty - Federal Reserve moving forward - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Black Sea grain shipping corridor extended: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 3/21/23

This week, Will and Ben discuss how the extension of the Black Sea trade corridor will impact commodity markets. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn up $.20 at $6.33 - December 2023 corn up $.03 at $5.60 - May soybeans down $.05 at $14.86 - November soybeans down $.30 at $13.09 - May soybean oil up 2.13 cents at 57.99 cents/lb - May soybean meal down $29.50 at $462.70/short ton - May wheat up $.28 at $7.00 - July wheat up $.13 at $7.08 - June WTI Crude Oil down $6.85 at $68.06/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production was up ever so slightly again last week and just below 300 million gallons. US stocks of ethanol continue to move higher and sit at the second highest volume since the pandemic. Gasoline demand was flat on the week. - There were more than 83 million bushels of announced flash corn sales for the current marketing year to China over a four-day period last week. Those sales will become official in this coming weekly report. However, for last weeks export sales recap- corn sales were down week over week while grain sorghum, soybeans, and wheat were all up week over week. - USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report last Friday showed all US cattle on feed as of March 1 at 95.5% of the inventory last year and right around the pre-report trade estimates. February placements were at 92.8%. - Commitment of Trader data is still getting caught up after their data breach in January- however, for the data we do have- corn has worked away all of the net long positions it held at the start of the year. There are still sizable net long holdings of soybeans. - The Black Sea Grain Initiative was officially extended for another 120 days over the weekend, despite Russian objections. - Ag Export inspections were largely as expected this week with corn, soybeans, grain sorghum and wheat all up week over week. Topics: - Market recap - Russian Ukrainian grain corridor extended - Continued Black Sea uncertainty - Federal Reserve moving forward - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Silicon Valley Bank collapse causes market turndown: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 3/14/23

This week, Will and Ben dive into the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the spillover fear impacting the commodity market. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn down $.24 at $6.13 - December 2023 corn down $.13 at $5.57 - May soybeans down $.38 at $14.91 - November soybeans down $.40 at $13.39 - May soybean oil down 4.49 cents at 55.86 cents/lb - May soybean meal down $1.20 at $492.20/short ton - May wheat down $.23 at $6.72 - July wheat down $.08 at $6.95 - June WTI Crude Oil down $5.07 at $74.91/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production was up ever so slightly on the week while US gasoline demand fell 6% week over week as a result ethanol stocks were up 22 million gallons. Ethanol price has been relatively stable for nearly 2 months at just over $2 per gallon. - Last week’s supply and demand estimates were largely as expected. US corn exports were lowered 75 million bushels while US soybean exports increased 25 million bushels. Globally- stocks continue to be tight as Argentina’s corn crop was lowered 7 million metric tons and their soybean crop lowered 8 million metric tons. - Ag export sales were mixed last week. For corn, the reported 55.6 million bushels was a marketing year high and above trader expectation. For soybeans, the first week of net cancelations were reported and the total was well below all pre-report expectations. Grain sorghum sales were up on purchases by China while wheat export sales were slightly down on the week. - It was a tense end to the week in the banking sector with Silicon Valley Bank, the nation’s 16th largest bank, being taken over by the FDIC. The VIX index rose sharply to trade above 30 on Monday but settled around 26 most of the day. However, the macro-outlook has changed over the weekend with the market now anticipating the FED to cut interest rates this year. - Weekly ag export shipments were relatively neutral on the week- only wheat came in below expectations. Corn, soybeans and grain sorghum were all up week over week. - This morning it was reported that the CPI rose 0.4% in February and 6% over the last year. Topics: - Market recap - Silicon Valley Bank collapse - General market fear increase - Federal Reserve moving forward - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The short and long-term future of U.S. ag trade: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 3/7/23

This week, Will and Ben look at commodity exporting headwinds and long-term trade adjustments. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - May corn down $.06 at $6.37 - December 2023 corn down $.02 at $5.70 - May soybeans up $.17 at $15.29 - November soybeans up $.18 at $13.79 - May soybean oil flat at 60.45 cents/lb - May soybean meal up $11.60 at $493.40/short ton - May wheat down $.15 at $6.95 - July wheat down $.12 at $7.03 - June WTI Crude Oil up $2.45 at $79.98/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production pulled back slightly for the most recent week. With gasoline demand was up 2% week over week and lower production- ethanol stocks were reduced 34 million gallons. - Many private estimates for South America corn and soybean production were out last week. The trend continues- the smaller Argentina crop continues to shrink while the larger Brazilian crops continue to grow. Worth watching is planted acreage of Brazilian corn. - Ag export sales were down week over week for corn, soybeans, grain sorghum, total wheats, cotton, and rice. All were within pre-report expectations but on the lower end. Export sales continue to present headwinds for commodity markets. - The US dollar index has picked up recently again to trade above 104.5 and back to levels we saw at the end of 2022. - Ag export inspections were mixed on the week- corn exports were up week over week and bullish to the market. Soybean and wheat exports were down week over week and bearish to the market. Grain sorghum shipments were down on the week but neutral to the market. Topics: - Market recap - Commodity exports facing headwinds - Ethanol and biofuels market expectations - U.S./Mexico discussions around biotech ban continue - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How the Russian Ukrainian war has impacted markets: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 2/28/23

This week, Will and Ben look at the Russian Ukrainian war's impact on markets as it enters year two. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn down $.39 at $6.38 - December 2023 corn down $.22 at $5.72 - March soybeans down $.40 at $15.00 - November soybeans down $.35 at $13.61 - March soybean oil down 2.09 cents at 59.81 cents/lb - March soybean meal up $4.70 at $491.10/short ton - March wheat down $.65 at $6.92 - July wheat down $.57 at $7.15 - June WTI Crude Oil up $.97 at $77.53/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production was up 5 million gallons week over week and brought production volumes above 300 million gallons on the week once again. It was also a strong week for gasoline demand with the highest volumes of the calendar year so far. - Ag export sales last week were down week over week for corn- extending a three-week trend- soybean meal and oil, and grain sorghum. However, volumes were up week over week for soybeans and wheat. All were within trade expectations. - At USDA’s Ag Outlook forum last week- the agency released expectations for 2023. Corn acreage was estimated at 91 million, soybeans at 87.5 million and wheat at a seven year high of 49.5 million. Corn price falls $1.10 year over year, soybeans down $1.40 and wheat down $0.50. - USDA reported that there were 11.7 million cattle on feed last Friday, down from 4% the year prior- in line with analyst expectations. - We get state stories today but yesterday’s report from Kansas showed that winter wheat in that state was 51% combined poor or very poor. - Ag exports last week were mixed. Down week over week for corn and soybeans but up week over week for grain sorghum and wheat. For soybeans, this was the lowest volume since early October. The corn export deficit grew another 18 million bushels on the week. Topics: - Market recap - Russian/Ukrainian war reaches one year - Ethanol and biofuels market expectations - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Early 2023 crop supply and demand expectations: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 2/21/23

This week, Will and Ben give market and production expectations for the 2023 season. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn down $.09 at $6.77 - December 2023 corn down $.02 at $5.94 - March soybeans up $.03 at $15.40 - November soybeans up $.12 at $13.96 - March soybean oil up 1.76 cents at 61.90 cents/lb - March soybean meal down $5.40 at $495.80/short ton - March wheat down $.31 at $7.57 - July wheat down $.29 at $7.72 - April WTI Crude Oil down $3.05 at $76.23/barrel Weekly highlights: - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 179 million bushels of soybean in January- up from December, but down from last January and the trade expectation of 181.7 million bushels. - Stocks for crude oil, gasoline, and ethanol increased week over week. Ethanol production used roughly 100 million bushels of corn last week on slightly increased production. Weaker gasoline use on the week might signal headwinds for ethanol demand moving forward. - Ag export sales last week were a little bearish- corn is still not seeing high enough volumes to ease concerns of more cuts, soybeans are seasonally moving lower as Brazil’s production hits the market and wheat sales were just “okay”. - Grain export inspections this morning was down across board, but relatively soft for corn relative to the seasonal normal and seasonally strong for soybeans. Topics: - Market recap - Acreage expectations - Yield expectations - Crop demand - Beginning stocks - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Building a successful grain marketing plan: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 2/14/23

This week, Will and Ben provide thoughts on how to create a successful grain marketing plan. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn up $.10 at $6.86 - December 2023 corn up $.01 at $5.96 - March soybeans up $.11 at $15.37 - November soybeans up $.14 at $13.84 - March soybean oil slightly up at 60.14 cents/lb - March soybean meal up $13.70 at $501.40/short ton - March wheat up $.39 at $7.88 - July wheat up $.36 at $8.01 - April WTI Crude Oil up $4.81 at $79.28/barrel Weekly highlights: - Ethanol production decreased 8 million gallons week over week to fall back below 300 million gallons. USDA cut their corn used for ethanol estimate 25 million bushels in February nearly matching my estimate of being short 26 million bushels. - USDA’s monthly supply and demand reports last week were largely as expected with slightly increasing domestic stocks on weaker domestic demand and decreasing global corn and soybean supply on smaller Argentine and Ukraine production. - Agricultural export sales last week were again mixed and following a trend. Corn sales are elevated, bean sales had the second lowest value of the marketing year and wheat sales were also relatively low. - Mexico issued a new decree Monday removing a requirement date but maintaining the Country’s goal of eliminating GMO corn imports and a full ban on white corn imports. - Weekly soybean export inspections hit their lowest levels in five weeks at 57.1 million bushels but still well above historical volumes. Corn exports continue to struggle while wheat saw some seasonal strength. Topics: - Market recap - Grain marketing - Grain storage - Market highs and lows - Basis talk - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Crop conditions in South America boosts U.S. exports: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 2/7/23

This week, Will and Ben breakdown private firm South American crop expectations ahead of key USDA reports. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn down $.04 at $6.76 - December 2023 corn up $.07 at $5.95 - March soybeans down $.04 at $15.26 - November soybeans up $.08 at $13.70 - March soybean oil down $.01 at 60.03 cents/lb - March soybean meal up $2.20 at $487.70/short ton - March wheat up $.06 at $7.49 - July wheat up $.11 at $7.65 - April WTI Crude Oil down $2.18 at $75.47/barrel Weekly highlights: - Domestic gasoline demand climbed the entire month of January after falling hard in December. However, the increasing domestic demand is not enough to offset total supply and stocks for energy increased for crude oil (174 million gallons), gasoline (108 million gallons), and distillate fuel (97 million gallons). - Ethanol production increased on the week to above 300 million gallons for the first time in nearly two months. Ethanol stocks decreased on higher disappearance offsetting increased production. - The Federal Reserve approved a quarter percentage point interest rate increase last Wednesday bringing the benchmark federal funds rate to 4.5-4.75%, but also signaled plans to raise rates again next month. - Agricultural export sales last week were mixed. Corn exceeded all expectations and has the most impressive sales of the week, while wheat disappointed. - Corn export inspections declined for the third straight week. It was the fourth week in a row that weekly soybean shipments exceeded 65 million bushels. Comparable to soybeans, wheat also had a strong week- exceeding all expectations and the largest inspections volume in nearly 7 months. Topics: - Market recap - Private South American crop expectations - USDA reports preview - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Mixed South America crop conditions boosts U.S. exports: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 1/31/23

This week, Will and Ben look at how mixed crop conditions in Argentina and Brazil are impacting U.S. commodity exports. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn up $.14 at $6.80 - December 2023 corn up $.02 at $5.88 - March soybeans up $.40 at $15.30 - November soybeans up $.23 at $13.62 - March soybean oil down $.01 at 61.04 cents/lb - January soybean meal up $23.60 at $485.50/short ton - March wheat up $.23 at $7.43 - July wheat up $.24 at $7.54 - January WTI Crude Oil down $4.04 at $77.65/barrel Weekly highlights: - US crude oil, gasoline and ethanol stocks increased last week while distillate stocks decreased. Gasoline demand was up slightly on the week, but 4% down year over year. Ethanol production was up slightly coming in at 298 million gallons on the week increasing ethanol stocks to 5% over the five-year average. - It was another decent week for agricultural export sales- soybean sales continue in a counter seasonal move increasing week over week. China represented about 83% of those sales. Corn sales were down week over week but above their four-week average thanks to strong purchases from Mexico. - Open interest positions were up across the board for Chicago wheats, corn and soybean. Corn open interest positions were up 2% and soybeans were up 3%. Managed money positions were up for feed grains: wheat up 7,435 net positions decreasing their net short, corn up 9,660 positions increasing the net long and soybeans were down 22,037 positions decreasing their net long. - On the agricultural export inspections front- soybeans continue to show strength with 68.2 million bushels shipped on the week. Wheat was also strong at 16.4 million bushels. Corn shipments were relatively soft, and that deficit continues to grow. Topics: - Market recap - South American crop production - China buying U.S. soybeans - Trade expectations - Interest rate expectations - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Weekly Commodity Market Update for 1/24/23

Recent USDA commodity reports shake up market outlook: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 1/17/23

This week, Will and Ben review big changes and surprises in USDA's most recent round of commoditys. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn up $.18 at $6.70 - December 2023 corn up $.04 at $5.94 - March soybeans up $.29 at $15.17 - November soybeans down $.08 at $13.83 - January soybean oil flat at 63.10 cents/lb - January soybean meal up $1.00 at $471.30/short ton - March wheat down $.08 at $7.33 - July wheat down $.13 at $7.42 - January WTI Crude Oil up $5.48 at $80.85/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production increased 29 million gallons last week to 277 million gallons. That used approximately 93.4 million bushels of corn- but still down roughly 10% from normal levels during this time. Gasoline demand also remains sluggish. - It was another week of disappointing Ag export sales. Corn fell below pre-report expectations, soybeans were on the lower end and there weren’t grain sorghum sales. - USDA supply and demand reports on Thursday provided bullish news for corn and bearish news for wheat with mixed signals on soybeans. - Open option future and option positions were up across the board for Chicago wheats, corn and soybeans. Wheat up just ever so slightly, corn up 1% and soybeans up 3%. Managed money positions increased for wheat but were down for corn and soybeans. Topics: - Market recap - USDA reports review - Supply and demand update - U.S. acreage - South American production adjustment - Reports to watch ----- Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Big upcoming USDA commodity reports could sway markets: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 1/10/23

This week, Will and Ben preview one of the biggest USDA report days of the year. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn down $.24 at $6.52 - December 2023 corn down $.16 at $5.90 - March soybeans down $.04 at $14.88 - November soybeans down $.20 at $13.91 - January soybean oil down 1.67 cents at 63.35 cents/lb - January soybean meal up $5.30 at $470.30/short ton - March wheat down $.46 at $7.41 - July wheat down $.42 at $7.55 - January WTI Crude Oil down $4.17 at $75.10/barrel Weekly highlights: - The last month has been a brutal stretch for US ethanol producers with returns over operating costs below a reasonable production threshold and in some cases negative. Low to negative operating margins reduced ethanol production fell to 248 million gallons on the week- its lowest volume since March 2021. - Export sales pulled back in a big way for feed grains with corn and wheat well below even pre-report trade expectations. This was the fourth straight week of zero grain sorghum sales. Soybeans sales were modest but well below their recent volumes as well. - Open interest in Chicago’s Corn and Soybeans increased 3% week over week to start the year. Managed money also increased for corn and soybeans building on net longs while increasing the net shorts for Chicago wheats. - Weekly AG export inspections were all within pre-report trade expectations but continue to cause concern in the market. Corn and soybeans were down week over week, while grain sorghum and wheat were up from the week prior. Topics: - Market recap - USDA report previews - Supply and demand update - U.S. acreage - South American production - Ending stocks/ 2023 demand ----- Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Market Movers to Watch in '23: Weekly Commodity Market Update for January 3, 2023

This week, Will and Ben dive into what will drive the 2023 crop markets. ----- Market recap (changes on week): - March corn up $.03 at $6.76 - December 2023 corn flat at $6.06 - January soybeans up $.34 at $15.23 - November soybeans up $.05 at $14.11 - January soybean oil down 1.37 cents at 65.02 cents/lb - January soybean meal up $17.20 at $465.00/short ton - March wheat up $.06 at $7.87 - July wheat up $.05 at $7.97 - January WTI Crude Oil down $0.74 at $79.27/barrel Weekly highlights: - US ethanol production was down again for the most recent week of data- falling below 1 million barrels per day- the first time since early October. But with the lack of use- the decrease wasn’t enough to offset, and ethanol stocks increased on the week. - Export sales pulled back again over the holiday week- corn was slightly up from its10 weeks average while soybeans were well below their recent volumes. Wheat exports were strong and exceeded all expectations. Topics: - Market recap - Likely 2023 market drivers: - Black Sea production - 2023 inputs - Cost/price squeeze risk increasing - Acreage/production competition ----- Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.com See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.