Record ethanol production and soy crush provide silver linings | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben review record ethanol and soy crush numbers and the wide swings in wheat prices.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» December 2024 corn down $.01 at $4.29
» December 2025 corn down $.04 at $4.41
» January 2025 soybeans down $.13 at $10.09
» November 2025 soybeans down $.19 at $10.26
» December soybean oil down 2.62 cents at 45.52 cents/lb
» December soybean meal down $4.80 at $290.30/short ton
» December 2024 wheat down $.18 at $5.47
» July 2025 wheat down $.17 at $5.81
» December 2024 cotton down 3.07 cents at 66.62 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton down 2.1 cents at 70.62 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil up $1.17 at $69.21/barrel
Weekly highlights:
Three sets of economic data released last week show that reductions in inflation growth have stalled presenting problems for the Federal Reserve. The CPI showed consumer prices up 2.6% on the year, the PPI showed producer prices up 2.4% year over year and retail sales increased 0.4% from September to October.
US energy stocks were mixed on the week. US crude oil stocks were up 87.7 million gallons, while gasoline and distillate stocks were down 185.1 and 58.6 million gallons, respectively. Implied gasoline demand was up 6% week over week.
US ethanol production surged again this week to a new weekly record 327 million gallons- up from 325 million gallons last week and exceeding the previous weekly record of 326 million gallons. Ethanol stocks were flat on the week.
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 199.96 million bushels of soybeans in October- up from 177.3 in September and expectations of 196.8 million bushels. The volume is a new record for any month of the year.
Open interest was up for everything except cotton this week- wheat (+1.4%), corn (+1.0%), soybean (+2.2%), soybean meal (+6.2%), and rough rice (+10.9%). Open interest for cotton fell week over week (-10.3%).
Money managers were mixed on the commodities this week but across the entire complex turned their net short of -51,409 futures and options contracts into a small net long of 14,346 contracts. Managed money traders were large net buyers of 87,946 corn futures and options contracts.
US export sales were mixed on the week. Grains sorghum, combined wheats and rice were all up week over week while everything else was down. Corn sales of 51.8 million bushels fell toward the bottom of pre-report expectations.
US Crop Conditions:
US winter wheat conditions continue to improve. The conditions index increased to 338 up from 326 last week and compares to 333 this time last year. A perfect score is 500. The percentage of the crop estimated at good to excellent increased to 49%- up from 44% last week and above the 46% expected. On a state-by-state basis, conditions were mixed across the country with no region showing clear gains or losses.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Record ethanol production
» Record soybean crush
» Wheat market fluctuations
» Inflation on the rise again
» Reports to watch
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