Weekly Commodity Market Update: Soybeans rally after early losses on the week
This week Will and Ben dive into several supporting factors for the soybean complex
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday's close):
- December 2023 corn down $0.10 at $4.67
- December 2024 corn down $0.07 $5.10
- January 2024 soybeans down $.19 at $13.63
- November 2024 soybeans down $.06 at $13.01
- December soybean oil up 1.15 cents at 52.69 cents/lb
- December soybean meal down $10.40 at $458.70/short ton
- December 2023 wheat down $.36 at $5.43
- July 2024 wheat down $.31 at $5.99
- January WTI Crude Oil flat at $78.36/barrel
Weekly Highlights
US energy stocks were mixed- US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased for the fourth straight week while stocks of US gasoline, distillate fuels and ethanol were all down week over week. Quietly, the US set the all-time monthly record for domestic crude oil production in October 2023.
US ethanol production increased to 308 million gallons on the week-up slightly from 306 million gallons the week before. Corn used for ethanol is estimated to be 103.7 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol so far this marketing year is up 19.7 million bushels or 2% compared to the same period last year.
Last weeks grain and oilseed export sales report was bullish for corn while bearish for total wheats. The reported export sales volume for soybeans of 144.0 was the largest ever weekly volume- but was expected ahead of the report.
Ukraine reached an agreement with the British government to create a subsidized insurance program for shippers wanting to buy commodities at Ukrainian ports.
The October NOPA soybean crush report was supportive for the soybean complex. Reported soybean crush was an all-time monthly record- besting the previous record from December 2021. Soybean oil stocks declined for the sixth straight month.
Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions were up nearly across the board as cotton and rice were the only two down week over week at 16.9% and 4.9% respectively. Chicago wheats were flat while corn and soybeans were up 0.4% and 4% respectively.
Managed money traders sold off 4,579 contracts of Chicago wheats to increase the net short in wheats while buying 5,102 contracts of Chicago corn to decrease their net short and buying 19,315 contracts of Chicago soybeans to increase their net long.
Argentina elected a new President over the weekend that shocked the two main political parties. The President elect has proposed a series of economic reforms that could grow the agricultural economy and impact grain trade flows.
US grain and oilseed export inspections were down week over week for corn and soybeans while up week over week for grain sorghum and wheat. All were within pre-report expectations.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Ukrainian trade finds support
- Argentina elects surprise President with aggressive ag policy
- Record soybean crush and export numbers
- Reports to watch
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