Private U.S. corn, soybean production estimates come in strong | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben breakdown private corn and soybean estimates and talk corn exports.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» September 2024 corn down $.06 at $3.90
» December 2024 corn down $.05 at $4.07
» September 2024 soybeans up $.01 at $10.31
» November 2024 soybeans up $.2901 at $10.40
» September soybean oil down 1.49 cents at 41.09 cents/lb
» September soybean meal up $3.70 at $338.70/short ton
» September 2024 wheat down $.08 at $5.39
» July 2025 wheat up $.09 at $6.01
» October cotton down .96 cents at 66.55 cents/lb
» December cotton down 1.43 cents at 67.78 cents/lb
» September WTI Crude Oil down $1.59 at $73.17/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee held their short-term interest rate target steady at 5.25-5.50% as expected while signaling a potential for a cut in September. Jerome Powell’s press conference afterward was more dovish than the committee statement.
The US economy added 114,000 jobs in July- down sharply from expectations of 185,000 and down from 179,000 last month. The US unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% up from 4.1% last month.
US energy stocks were mostly lower week over week. Stocks were down for crude oil and gasoline 144 and 154 million gallons, respectively. For crude oil, stocks fell nearly 1.16 billion gallons in July (-6%). Weekly implied gasoline was down week over week 2%.
US ethanol production increased to an all-time record of 36 million gallons- up 4 million gallons week over week and exclipsing the previous record set in Dec 2017. Ethanol stocks increased just slightly on the week on higher production and lower demand.
Open interest in Chicago commodities was up 1.2% for Chicago wheats, 2.3% and for Cotton 1.5%, everything else was down- corn at -3.9%, soybeans (-6.7%), soybean oil (-4.1%), Soybean meal (-5.1%), and rough rice (-7.4%).
Collectively across the grains and oilseeds, managed money futures and options positions reduced their record net short by another 9,290 positions. However, money managers did buy reduce their large net shorts of corn 23,453 positions. They increased their short in soybeans 14,932 net positions. Both corn and soybeans are still the fourth and second largest net shorts in history, respectively.
Farmer selling of corn contracts continued as producers and merchants reduced their net long 27.6%. However, there was a sharp increase in long positions held for soybeans by producers and merchants at a 53.7% increase.
US grain and oilseed export sales were mixed. 2023/24 sales were bearish for corn at 6.6 million bushels, bullish for soybeans at 13.9 million bushels and slightly bearish for wheats in the old crop marketing year. Cotton and rice markets saw net cancelations at the end of their respective marketing years. New crop sales were supportive.
Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were neutral to bullish on the week. Corn export inspections of 47.8 million bushels were above all expectations and seasonally strong. Sorghum shipments of 6.8 million bushels were strong. Soybean and wheat shipments were as expected.
StoneX was the first private firm out of the gate with 2024 corn and soybean yield and production estimates. They pegged US corn at 182.3 bushels to the acre with a production of 15,207 million bushels compared to USDA in July at 15.100 million bushels. US soybean estimates were 52.6 bushels/acre with production at 4,483 million bushels compared to USDA at 4,435 million bushels.
US corn conditions fell 1% on the week to 67% good to excellent after increasing 1% last week. The average for this time of year is 62%. National soybean ratings increased 1% to 68% and compares to 60% on average.
US cotton conditions decreased to 45% good to excellent- down from 49% last week and 53% the week before that. The composite dropped to 314 and compares to 328 on average.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Corn, soybean production estimates
» Corn export inspections seasonally high
» Roadmap for selling more corn to China
» FED tracking for September interest rate cut
» Reports to watch
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