Interest rate cuts and commodity supply and demand shakeup | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben talk about another likely drop in interest rates and increases in export numbers.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» December 2024 corn up $.06 at $4.16
» December 2025 corn up $.01 at $4.40
» January 2025 soybeans up $.11 at $9.97
» November 2025 soybeans up $.14 at $10.35
» December soybean oil up 2.87 cents at 45.56 cents/lb
» December soybean meal down $5.20 at $299.60/short ton
» December 2024 wheat up $.10 at $5.68
» July 2025 wheat down $.12 at $6.04
» December 2024 cotton down 0.46 cents at 69.9 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton flat at 72.61 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil up $4.27 at $71.72/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% last quarter- down from 3.0% in the second quarter and down from 3.0% growth expectations. Personal consumption expenditures grew 3.7%-up from 2.8% in second quarter and well above the 3.0% growth expected.
The Jobs Openings and Loss report estimated 7.443 million open jobs to end September- down from the end of August and below pre-report expectations of 7.9 million open jobs. Jobs quit rates fell to 1.9% in September, which is below the 2.3% prior to the 2020 pandemic.
US energy stocks were down for crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuels by 22, 114, and 41 million gallons, respectively week over week. US gasoline demand was also up 4% and is 5% stronger than this time last year.
US ethanol production was just marginally higher on the week- extending the weekly increases to the fifth straight week. US ethanol stocks were down 19 million gallons on the week.
The USDA September grain crushing report estimated 440 million bushels of corn used for ethanol- down from 480 in August, but above 424 last September.
The USDA soybean crush report estimated 186.5 million bushels were crushed during September- down from expectations of 187.4 million bushels and below all trade expectations.
Open interest was up for wheats (+1.2%), corn (+0.5%), soybean meal (+2.7%), and cotton (+1.1%), while being down for soybeans (-15.7%), soybean oil (-1.0%), and rough rice (-3.0%)
Money managers traders were net buyers of corn (53,796) while sellers of all other commodities. Soybean oil (-3,122), soybean meal (-43,550) cotton (-4,455), soybeans (-12,652), wheats (-5,770) and rice (-367).
After a very strong week of ag export sales last week- export sales of grains and oilseeds were all as expected, but down from the prior week for corn at 92.2 million bushels, grain sorghum at 0.2 million bushels and wheat at 15.1 million bushels. Soybeans were up week over week at 83.5 million bushels.
Weekly grain and oilseed expectations were down week over week for corn, soybeans, and combined wheats, but up for grain sorghum and soft red winter wheat. Wheat inspections of 7.1 million bushels were below all pre-report trade expectations.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Lowering interest rates
» Export outlook continues to shift
» USDA reports reshaping corn and soybean balance sheets
» Reports to watch
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