Crop markets lower across the board | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben dive into lower crop prices and grain sorghum export expectations.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» December 2024 corn down $.18 at $4.08
» December 2025 corn down $.13 at $4.42
» November 2024 soybeans down $.38 at $9.96
» November 2025 soybeans down $.33 at $10.47
» December soybean oil down 2.67 cents at 41.90 cents/lb
» December soybean meal down $9.30 at $315.50/short ton
» December 2024 wheat down $.07 at $5.85
» July 2025 wheat down $.13 at $6.24
» December 2024 cotton down 2.5 cents at 71.03 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton down .93 cents at 72.89 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil down $3.29 at $73.34/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased more than expected last month. Price for consumers increased 0.2% in September, matching August but above expectations of +0.1%. Annual CPI was up 2.4% compared to expectations it would fall to 2.3%.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat month over month in September. The value was below an expected increase of 0.2% for the month. The annual value of 1.8% in September was up from 1.7% in the month prior and above expectations of 1.6%.
US energy stocks were again mixed week over week. Crude oil stocks were up 244 million gallons while, gasoline, distillate and ethanol stocks were down 265, 131, and 55 million gallons, respectively. Implied gasoline use was up 13% on the week.
US ethanol production increased again this week- up 7 million gallons to 305 million gallons. Ethanol profitability has fallen below the average experienced last year and close to the long run average.
The October USDA report was slightly bearish to grain and oilseed markets. USDA increased the national average corn yield 0.2 bushels/acre to 183.8- the trade was expecting a small decrease. The national average soybean yield was lowered 0.1 bushels per acre matching expectations. Corn and soybean production and ending stocks for 2024/25 came in above expectations creating a bearish sentiment to the market.
Open interest was up for wheats (+0.4%), corn (+0.3%), soybeans (+3.4%), soybean meal (+1.7%), cotton (+4.5%), and rough rice (+3.1%) while being down for soybean oil (-0.1%).
Money managers are now net long the grains and oilseeds for the first time since September 5, 2023. Managed money traders were net buyers of everything except for soybean meal.
Weekly export sales for grain and oilseeds were neutral on the week relatively to expectations but down week over week for corn, soybeans, milo, wheats, and cotton while up week over week for rice.
Topics:
» Market recap
» USDA WASDE update
» Grain sorghum exports
» Grain sorghum outlook
» Inflationary pressure watch
» Reports to watch
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