Ag market rally flattens | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben cover the impact of general market factors and upcoming USDA production estimates on crop prices.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» December 2024 corn up $.02 at $4.26
» December 2025 corn up $.01 at $4.55
» November 2024 soybeans down $.13 at $10.34
» November 2025 soybeans down $.14 at $10.80
» December soybean oil up 1.26 cents at 44.57 cents/lb
» December soybean meal down $16.80 at $324.80/short ton
» December 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.92
» July 2025 wheat up $.16 at $6.37
» December 2024 cotton flat at 73.53 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton flat at 73.82 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil up $8.75 at $76.63/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The US economy is humming, or at least that was the message from the September employment report that showed job creation well above expectations, unemployment down, and hourly wages up. However, a disconnect between sentiment of the economy and the data seems to exist.
StoneX’s October Customer Survey of US corn and soybean yield increased relative to September. Corn at 184.0 bushels per acre up from 182.9 in September. US soybean yield was estimated at 53.5 bushels per acre up from 53.0 in September. USDA is at 183.6 and 53.2 bushels per acre for corn and soybean yields, respectively.
US energy stocks were mixed. Crude oil and gasoline stocks were up 163 and 47 million gallons while distillate and ethanol stocks were down 54 and 3 million gallons. Implied gasoline demand was down 7% week over week.
US ethanol production rebounded to 298 million gallons produced on the week- up from 292 million gallons the week before and 297 million gallons.
Open interest was up for wheats (+5.6%), corn (+3.8%), soybeans (3.5%), soybean meal (+5.2%), and cotton (+1.75), while down for rough rice (-1.6%) and soybean oil (-1.0%).
Money managers were net buyers of futures and option contracts of Chicago wheats (+8,192), corn (+63,000), soybeans (+34,659), soybean meal (+44,950), and cotton (+5,402) but down for rough rice (-329).
Weekly export sales for grain and oilseeds were supportive for the complex. Corn sales of 66.3 million bushels exceeded all pre-report expectations while soybean and wheat sales of 53 and 16.3 million bushels were at the top end of their respective ranges as well.
US grain and oilseed export inspections were neutral for corn and wheat at 36.7 and 13.4 million bushels respectively, bullish for soybeans at 52.6 million bushels, and bearish for grain sorghum at 113,000 bushels.
US corn conditions ratings of 64% good to excellent were unchanged on the week. Corn harvest is 30% complete. US soybean good to excellent ratings fell 1% point to 63% with harvest 47% complete.
Over half of the US winter wheat area is now planted. US farmers planted 12% of the wheat acreage over the week.
The US cotton crop is 26% harvested- up 3% on the week. The condition of the US cotton crop rated good to excellent increased 1% point after a large drop due to Hurricane Helene the week prior.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Macro data impacting ag markets
» Traders re-enter market
» Chinese corn imports projected to waiver
» Split in expectations of upcoming USDA supply numbers
» Reports to watch
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