Midwest planting ahead of pace: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 5/9/23
This week, Will and Ben discuss strong planting progress.
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Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn up $.12 at $5.96
- December 2023 corn up $.04 at $5.29
- July soybeans up $.06 at $14.33
- November soybeans down $.03 at $12.72
- July soybean oil up 1.84 cents at $53.65
- July soybean meal down $6.70 at $426.90/short ton
- July wheat up $.36 at $6.54
- June WTI Crude Oil down $2.87 at $72.74/barrel
Weekly highlights:
- The surge in US gasoline demand was rather short lived. After increasing 12% the week before- gasoline demand fell back down 9%. Energy stocks were down across the board outside gasoline that rose on the lower demand
- US ethanol production was slightly up on the week (+3 million gallons) however corn used for ethanol continues to lag the pace needed.
- The Federal Reserve did increase their short-term rate another quarter point as expected last week. The range is 5-5.25% right now.
- It was another bearish week for US corn sales as they came in net negative for an April week for the first time in 20 years. China canceled 22 million bushels on the week. All other commodities were within expectations. bearish
- Open interest positions were mixed on the week: wheats (flat), corn (+3.2%), soybeans (-2.3%), soybean oil +2.6%), Soybean meal (-1.9%), Cotton (+1.5%) and rough rice (-2%).
- Managed money holdings of futures and options positions were also largely down across the board (wheats being the exception) headlined with corn down 102,849 net positions. Soybeans shed 30,835 positions and soybean meal down 25,816 net positions.
- US grain export inspections were on the lower end of expectations and bearish for corn with the seasonal deficit on old crop exports continuing to grow.
- USDA’s crop progress report showed 49% of the nation’s corn planted- up 23% from last week and above the 5-year average for this time of the year. Corn planting is just about done in Missouri (92%) compared to Dakota’s where planting hasn’t really started.
- 35% of the soybean crop planted- up 16% on the week and above average of 21% for this time of year.
- Conditions for winter wheats increased in the Pacific northwest while largely falling across the plains. The full composite conditions index which accounts for all ratings fell just slightly.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Black Sea trade corridor negotiations
- Corn and soybean planting
- Fed continues rate hike
- USDA May supply and demand preview
- Reports to watch
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