Federal Reserve signals longer-lasting rate hikes: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 6/13/23
This week, Will and Ben look at expectations for Federal Reserve week.
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Market recap (changes on week):
- July corn up $.20 at $6.17
- December 2023 corn up $.12 at $5.49
- July soybeans up $.22 at $13.72
- November soybeans up $.30 at $12.09
- July soybean oil up 4.72 cents at 53.98 cents/lb
- July soybean meal down $3.80 at $397.40/short ton
- July 2023 wheat up $.09 at $6.33
- July 2024 wheat up $.04 at $6.90
- June WTI Crude Oil down $4.86 at $67.23/barrel
Weekly highlights:
- It was a mixed week in the energy sector- ending fuel stocks were largely up across the board including a 26-million-gallon increase to US ethanol stocks. Ethanol production rose 10 million gallons on the week to the largest weekly volume of the calendar year.
- US export sales were fairly consistent on the week- the exception being wheat sales which were bullish, well above all pre-report expectations.
- Open interest position of Chicago futures and options positions were mixed- flat for Chicago wheats, up for corn, soybeans, and soybean meal, but down for soybean oil, cotton, and rough rice.
- Managed money accounts largely added contracts across the board- the exception: Chicago wheats which turned their small net long into a small net short.
- USDA’s June Supply and Demand update include cuts to exports- corn down another 50 million bushels after being cut 75 million bushels in May. Soybean exports down 15 million bushels. 2022/23 corn imports were reduced 15 million bushels. The national wheat yield was increased 0.2 of a bushel to 44.9 bushel/acre.
- US Ag Export inspections were as expected this week, but down week over week for corn, soybeans and all wheats combined.
- Crop conditions deteriorated a little on the week- corn, soybeans and rice all down 3% to 61%, 59% and 67% good to excellent respectively. Cotton conditions were down 2% week over week to 49%
- Winter wheat harvest progresses with 8% completed.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Oil prices
- Fuel demand
- Export update
- USDA supply and demand report adjustments
- Reports to watch
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