Soybean markets have a tough road to go | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben breakdown the path forward for soybean markets and take a look at shifting wheat and cotton numbers.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» September 2024 corn down $.07 at $3.83
» December 2024 corn down $.06 at $4.01
» September 2024 soybeans down $.60 at $9.71
» November 2024 soybeans down $.54 at $9.86
» September soybean oil up .39 cents at 41.48 cents/lb
» September soybean meal down $32.70 at $306.00/short ton
» September 2024 wheat down $.03 at $5.36
» July 2025 wheat down $.05 at $5.96
» October cotton up 1.74 cents at 68.29 cents/lb
» December cotton up 1.29 cents at 69.07 cents/lb
» September WTI Crude Oil up $6.49 at $79.66/barrel
Weekly highlights:
US energy stocks were mixed on the week with crude oil and ethanol stocks down while gasoline and distillate fuel stocks were up. Gasoline demand for the week was down 3% and concerns about the macroeconomic outlook weighed on demand expectations and prices.
US ethanol production decreased from an all time weekly record of 326 million gallons to 314 million gallons last week. This compares to 301 million gallons for the same week last year.
Open interest in Chicago commodities was up for wheats (+1.5%), soybeans (+2.0%), soybean meal (+1.6%), and cotton (+1.0%) while down for corn (-0.4%), soybean oil (-1.1%), and rice (-3%).
Collectively across the grains and oilseeds, managed money futures and options positions reduced their record relatively large net short by 58,932 contracts- the largest reduction since Mid-May. Chicago wheats, corn, soybeans, soybean meal and rice were all net buyers only partially offset with further selling in cotton and soybean oil.
Farmer selling of corn contracts continued as producers and merchants reduced their net long all the way to a net short position of -11,457 contracts. Producers and merchants remain net long in soybeans but reduced their position there as well.
US grain and oilseed export inspections were supportive on the week. 2023/24 corn and soybean sales of 19.1 and 12 million bushels, respectively were above all pre-report expectations. 2024/25 soybean sales of 36 million bushels were a marketing year high. Cotton and rice have concluded their 2023/24 marketing year.
Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed. Corn shipments of 38.4 million bushels were down relative to recent volumes. Soybean shipments of 12.0
USDA released their August supply and demand estimates on Monday. US corn and soybean production was larger as expected. Corn and 183.1 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53.2 bushels per acre were both higher than USDA July and pre-report trade estimates. Global soybean supplies increased 6.54 million metric tons- above the most bearish pre-report trade estimate.
USDA lowered US sorghum yields 16.3 bushels per acre in August. Cotton harvested acreage was lowered 1.04 million acres However, even with lower ending stocks the season average price fell 2 cents per pound to $0.66.
US corn conditions remained unchanged at 67% good to excellent on the week (trade was expecting a 1%-point decline). US soybean conditions also remained unchanged at 68% good to excellent with the trade expecting a one-point decline.
US cotton conditions increased one point to 46% good to excellent.
The spring wheat crop fell to 72% good to excellent and compares to 42% last year.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Soybean outlook
» August WASDE breakdown
» Corn, soybean eye test
» Wheat, cotton path forward
» Reports to watch
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