General economic factors swaying ag markets | Weekly Commodity Market Update
Will and Ben look at several economic factors influencing ag markets, and a potential spark in wheat markets.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» September 2024 corn down $.04 at $3.96
» December 2024 corn down $.03 at $4.12
» September 2024 soybeans down $.34 at $10.30
» November 2024 soybeans down $.29 at $10.39
» September soybean oil down 3.64 cents at 42.58 cents/lb
» September soybean meal up $9.20 at $335.00/short ton
» September 2024 wheat down $.17 at $5.31
» July 2025 wheat down $.16 at $5.92
» October cotton down 2.53 cents at 67.51 cents/lb
» December cotton down 1.46 cents at 69.21 cents/lb
» September WTI Crude Oil down $3.65 at $74.76/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The US economy grew by 2.8% in Q2 2024, up from 1.4% in Q1 and surpassing expectations of 2.1%, driven by strong consumer spending.
The PCE Price Index showed a slight monthly increase (+0.1%), with annualized inflation easing to 2.5% from 2.6% in May.
US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel stocks decreased, while implied gasoline demand rose 8%.
Ethanol production declined by 3 million gallons to 322 million gallons. Ethanol producers must maintain high production levels to meet corn usage estimates.
A US court sent a 2022 EPA ruling on refinery waivers back for review, creating uncertainty in the RIN market.
Open interest rose for corn (+1.5%), wheat (+0.6%), soybean oil (+3.8%), cotton (+3.5%), and rough rice (+11.9%), but fell for soybeans (-0.8%) and soybean meal (-0.1%).
Managed money reduced net short positions in grains and oilseeds by 20,677, with significant buying in corn, soybeans, and wheat. Net selling continued in cotton and rough rice.
Corn and soybean selling increased, with net long positions reduced by 38.2% and 39.0%, respectively.
The Spring Wheat Tour estimated 2024 HRS wheat yield at 54.5 bushels/acre, up from 47.4 last year, with increases in durum and HRW as well.
Weak sales for old crop US grains and oilseeds; strong new crop sales for corn and soybeans. Corn export sales hit a marketing year high, while soybeans fell below expectations.
Export inspections were near the high end of expectations for corn, soybeans, and wheat; sorghum inspections slightly down.
US corn conditions improved to 68% good to excellent, while soybean ratings fell to 67%. Cotton conditions declined to 49%, and spring wheat dropped to 74%.
Topics:
» Market recap
» EPA to reassess SREs
» GDP shows strong increase
» Personal expenditures rise
» Crop conditions continue improvement
» Wheat markets discussion
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