Crop markets eye USDA trade estimates | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben look at how USDA might adjust trade estimates to accommodate its recent increase in stocks.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» September 2024 corn down $.14 at $4.07
» December 2024 corn down $.13 at $4.20
» September 2024 soybeans down $.11 at $11.07
» November 2024 soybeans down $.12 at $11.11
» September soybean oil up 2.89 cents at 48.87 cents/lb
» September soybean meal down $6.80 at $328.00/short ton
» September 2024 wheat down $.20 at $5.70
» September WTI Crude Oil down $.96 at $81.43/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The number of open US jobs at 8.1 million came in above expectations of 7.9 million indicating there is still demand for labor in the US.
The US economy created 206,000 jobs in June- slightly more than 200,000 expected. However, April and May were revised sharply lower by a combined 111,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate cracked 4% at 4.1% in June. This was the highest rate since November 2021 signaling the economy is slowing.
Hourly wages rose again in June, but the pace slowed to 3.9% from 4.1% matching expectations.
US energy stocks were mostly lower on the week. US crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks were down 511, 93, and 65 million gallons, respectively. Implied gasoline demand rebounded after falling the week prior. Year over year changes in stocks are down 1% for crude oil, but up 6% for both gasoline and distillate fuels.
US ethanol production increased to 313 million gallons on the week up from 307 million gallons the week prior. Ethanol production margins have increased the last couple weeks on decreasing corn cost and increasing ethanol prices. Ethanol stocks increased just slightly on the week.
Managed money accounts continue to hold relatively large net short positions of Chicago corn, soybeans and wheats. Combined positions were down another 41,010 contracts on the week. Cotton and rice had net long positions on the week reducing their net shorts.
Weekly US grain and oilseed export sales were mixed. Corn sales of 14.1 million bushels were bearish, soybean sales of 8.4 million bushels were also bearish while all wheat sales of 29.6 million bushels were bullish.
Weekly US grain and oilseed export shipments were up week over week for corn, level for sorghum and total wheats and down for soybeans. However, all were below their recent weekly volumes.
US corn and soybean conditions both increased 1% this week to 68% while the trade was expecting no change. The conditions change is bearish to markets as weather outlook looks suitable for another week of good condition improvement.
US cotton conditions decreased sharply again this week to 45% vs 50% last week.
The fast winter wheat harvest is now 63% harvested matching trade expectations.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Recap of last week's USDA reports
» Western Cornbelt post-flooding conditions
» Energy market providing support
» Funds build net short positions
» Reports to watch
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