USDA increases expectation for 2025 ag trade deficit | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben break down a shifting ag trade picture and what it means for U.S. growers.
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» March 2025 corn down $.01 at $4.32
» December 2025 corn flat at $4.32
» January 2025 soybeans flat $9.85
» November 2025 soybeans down $.05 at $10.05
» March soybean oil slightly down at 41.42 cents/lb
» March soybean meal up $8.00 at $293.70/short ton
» March wheat down $.08 at $5.47
» July 2025 wheat down $.11 at $5.62
» March cotton slightly down at 71.49 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton flat at 72.27 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil down $.82 at $68.10/barrel
Weekly highlights:
US consumer confidence improved again in November- 2.1 points to 111.7 in November largely driving by improved current conditions in the labor market.
US energy stocks were mixed with crude oil stock lower 77.5 million gallons, gasoline and diesel stocks higher 139 and 17.5 million gallons, respectively. US gasoline demand was up 1% from the week prior and 4% higher than the same week last year.
US ethanol production once again set a weekly production record- the third such record in 2024 at 329 million gallons produced. Even with the record production, ethanol stocks only grew 12.9 million gallons.
Open interest was down week over week for all Chicago grains and oilseeds: wheats (-10.1%), corn (-12.2%), soybeans (-1.4%), soybean oil (-7.8%), soybean meal (-8.2%), cotton (-2.2%), and rough rice (-4.3%).
Money managers built on their net short position on the week. Managed money traders sold off 8,858 futures and options positions of wheats, 17,186 positions of corn, 13,771 positions of soybeans, 32,867 positions of soybean oil, and 11,716 positions of soybean meal, while being buyers of 15,986 positions of cotton and 661 positions of rough rice.
US grain and oilseed export sales were neutral to bullish on the week. Corn, grain and wheat sales were as expected at 41.8, 4.8 and 13.5 million bushels, respectively. US soybean and soybean oil sales were above all expectations at 91.5 million bushels and 124.8 thousand metric tons, respectively.
This week’s grain and oilseed export inspections report was within expectations but down week over week for corn (36.8 million bushels), soybeans (76.7), and wheats (10.9). Grain sorghum exports were up on the week- 7.7 million bushels.
Topics:
» USDA increases 2025 ag trade deficit expectation
» Jamieson Greer tapped for USTR
» Ukraine introduces minimum export price for key ag goods
» Reports to watch
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