USDA makes few changes in March supply and demand report | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben check in on inflationary measures and USDA's updated supply and demand numbers.
Market recap (changes on week as of Friday's close):
» May 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.58
» December 2025 corn down $.03 at $4.51
» May 2025 soybeans down $.09 at $10.16
» November 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.18
» May soybean oil down 1.83 cents at 41.59 cents/lb
» May soybean meal up $9.40 at $305.90/short ton
» May wheat up $.06 at $5.57
» July 2025 wheat up $.08 at $5.73
» May 2025 cotton up 1.30 cents at 67.37 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton up $1.52 at 69.98 cents/lb
» May WTI Crude Oil up $.18 at $66.96/barrel
Weekly highlights:
US job openings in January were reported at 7.7 million jobs- that was up from a two year low of 7.5 in December 2024.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported up at 0.2% month over month vs expectations of increasing 0.2%. The annual CPI increased 3.1% vs 3.3% last month and expectations of 3.2%.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat month over month in February- below expectations of 0.3% growth. The annual PPI was reported at 3.2%- down from 3.7% in January.
The Preliminary Consumer Sentiment value fell harder than expected in March. Consumers have concerns about economic health and high levels of future inflation.
US retail sales were up 0.2% in February compared to January, but below the 0.6 growth expectations. Year over year retail sales are up 3.1%.
USDA left the corn and soybean balance sheets virtually unchanged this month- the exception being a 15-cent decline in the season-average price for soybeans. Sorghum demand categories continue to change, and wheat saw reductions in demand and price.
US crude oil stocks were up 60.8 million gallons while gasoline and distillate fuel stocks were down 241 and 65.5 million gallons, respectively. Implied US gasoline demand was up 3% from last week and up 8% compared to the prior four week average.
US ethanol production pulled back to 312 million gallons- down from 321, but up from 301 last year and the five-year average of 296 million gallons. Ethanol stocks increased 3.7 million gallons but remain just below the all time record set in April 2020 at the start of the Coronavirus pandemic.
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 177.9 million bushels of soybeans in February- below all pre-report estimates.
Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were neutral to bullish on the week- corn sales of 38.1 million bushels were in line with pre-report expectations but up from the week prior. Soybean and wheat export sales of 27.6 and 28.8 million bushels, respectively were both above all pre-report expectations. Sorghum sales were healthy at 1.3 million bushels. Rice sales fell to a 5-week low at 0.7 mil. Cwt.
Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 0.3% week over week. Producer and merchants reduced their net short position 71,035 contracts, while money managers were net sellers again this week- increasing their net short position.
Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were solid this week. Corn and soybean inspections of 65.3 and 23.8 million bushels were both within range, while wheat inspections of 18.1 million bushels were bullish- above all pre-report expectations.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Checking inflation measures
» USDA updates its supply and demand estimates
» Oilseed crush comes in below expectations
» Reports to watch
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