WOYM - World Fertilizer Prices, Kansas Wheat Reality
Fertilizer isn’t just an input—it’s a globally traded commodity with price signals driven by geopolitics, energy markets, and overseas demand. In this episode, Aaron Harries sits down with Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, to unpack why fertilizer markets can feel like “three-dimensional chess,” especially for wheat producers balancing tight margins.
Rosenbusch explains how global trade flows shift when conflict disrupts supply chains and when natural gas availability changes the economics of nitrogen production. The conversation dives into why the U.S. is relatively strong in nitrogen production yet still imports key products, why potash remains heavily import-dependent, and how global demand—especially major buyers—can set price direction. He also stresses that while producers can’t control what happens in Beijing or on the Black Sea, they can control efficiency: the 4R framework (right source, rate, time, place), variable-rate strategies, and emerging technologies that help fertilizer go further.
Top 10 takeaways
Fertilizer pricing is global—local conditions are only part of the story.
Natural gas is the “hidden driver” behind nitrogen availability and cost.
The U.S. is comparatively strong in nitrogen production, but still imports meaningful volumes depending on product/year.
Potash remains heavily import-dependent, with Canada as a major supplier.
Phosphate supply is shaped by both U.S. production and imports—don’t judge the market by domestic producers alone.
When geopolitics disrupt supply (or trade routes), “normal” supply/demand logic can break down fast.
China’s production choices can tighten global supply and move prices far from the Plains.
Big centralized buyers (like India, as discussed) can effectively set global benchmarks with massive purchases.
In tight-margin years, stewardship matters more: 4R practices + precision can be the best controllable lever.
Better, farmer-friendly market transparency (TFI and USDA resources) can reduce misinformation and improve decisions.
Timestamped Rundown
00:00–00:59 – Show intro; guest background and credentials.
01:00–01:49 – What TFI is: representing the full fertilizer supply chain; advocacy + industry support.
01:50–03:42 – Fertilizer as a globally traded commodity; U.S. is ~10% of global consumption; potash import dependence.
03:43–06:09 – Russia–Ukraine ripple effects: sanctions, trade flow weirdness, and natural gas as the nitrogen bottleneck in Europe.
06:10–08:20 – China’s influence: export changes, phosphate dominance, and competing demand (including industrial uses).
08:21–11:34 – U.S. domestic production vs imports by nutrient: nitrogen, potash, phosphate; why “turning up production” isn’t simple.
11:35–12:00 – New potash production mentions (Michigan/Utah/New Mexico developments).
12:01–16:12 – Nitrogen imports and Trinidad connection; tariffs and why TFI focuses on facts, not “winners/losers.”
16:13–17:38 – “Political chess”: fertilizer’s role in high-level diplomacy (as described by Rosenbusch).
17:39–18:41 – Domestic production investment: what funding can/can’t do vs. true plant build costs; efficiency tech.
18:42–21:41 – Grower reality: low commodity prices + rising inputs; corn acres as a big U.S. demand driver; focus on stewardship.
21:42–23:31 – Global demand: India’s buying power and how non-U.S. crops can still move fertilizer markets.
23:32–25:34 – New farmer-facing market info resource coming from TFI; call for better USDA fertilizer economist/input transparency.
25:35–26:27 – Wrap-up; where to find episodes and how to contact the show.
Kansas Wheat
WheatsOnYorMind.com
