WOYM - Weather Pivots, Wheat Profits, and What’s Next

Wheat's On Your Mind

Private meteorologist and climatologist Brian Bledsoe joins Wheat’s On Your Mind to reflect on the surprising weather turns of 2025 and what Kansas wheat producers should be watching as 2026 approaches.  With a strong soil moisture profile and a well-established crop across much of the state, Bledsoe explains why early-season dryness may not spell disaster — especially as global weather patterns begin to pivot. The conversation dives deep into La Niña and El Niño transitions, historical analog years, polar vortex risks, and long-term climate oscillations shaping agriculture in the High Plains.  Bledsoe also shares insight on private weather services, AI-driven forecasting, and why communication — not just data — is critical for helping farmers make confident decisions in an unpredictable weather future. Top 10 Takeaways Seasonal forecasts must be revisited as conditions change. 2025 shifted wetter due to unexpected Pacific temperature patterns. Kansas wheat enters 2026 with a strong soil moisture profile. La Niña is fading, with El Niño likely developing later in 2026. March may trend dry, but April moisture looks promising. Historical analog years suggest spring moisture rebounds are common. Polar vortex outbreaks remain a risk during La Niña winters. Long-term climate cycles matter more than single-year trends. AI enhances forecasting, but experience and communication remain key. Private weather services are growing as producers seek tailored insight. Timestamped Rundown 00:01– 01:07 — Show open + guest intro Aaron introduces the podcast, Brian Bledsoe’s background, and the episode focus (2025 recap + 2026 preview). 01:08 – 04:14 — What stood out in 2025 (and why forecasts pivoted) Brian explains how conditions looked dry, then flipped in April; discusses why adapting forecasts matters and how Pacific temps shifted the outcome. 04:15 – 06:04 — What Brian is watching now (ENSO / La Niña status) He clarifies how La Niña/El Niño messaging gets oversimplified, then lays out where La Niña stands now and when it fades. 06:05 – 07:45 — When La Niña/El Niño matters most + 2023 example Brian explains typical timing/impacts and points to 2023 as a recent “pivot year” with sharp Kansas contrasts and hail/water patterns. 07:46 – 10:17 — Analogs: how he uses “history” to forecast Defines analogs, lists the six key analog years (1951, 1965, 1972, 2002, 2009, 2023), and what they suggest for March temps and precipitation. 10:18 – 13:45 — Jan–Apr outlook for Kansas wheat (profile, dryness, then April wetter) Full soil profile as “bridge,” western KS higher dry risk early, lingering La Niña signal, then optimism for a wetter April and better May/June odds; “drought begets drought / wet begets wet.” 13:46 – 17:10 — Polar vortex / extreme cold risk Why La Niña patterns can unlock Arctic air; notes cold mostly staying NE so far; warns about warm winter stretches pushing wheat growth and moisture use; “shouldn’t be 70 on Christmas.” 17:11 – 21:09 — Shifting seasons + climate context + PDO deep dive Brian’s perspective on climate variability, then explains the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), why the ’90s were “golden,” and why the last ~27 years have been more drought-prone/challenging. 21:10 – 25:02 — CO₂, cropping systems, dryline movement, and moisture recycling Discusses politicization/disinformation, then the role of dry soils vs wet soils, vegetation/corn transpiration, and why the dryline’s behavior depends heavily on pattern + soil moisture feedbacks. 25:03 – 28:04 — AI in forecasting + ECMWF vs U.S. model investment AI can improve accuracy, but human interpretation/communication remains key; praises ECMWF as gold standard; criticizes U.S. R&D cuts. 28:05 – 29:11 — Brian’s services + where to find him How he works with producers; points to his site and contact methods. 29:12 – 30:58 — Growth of private weather + NWS cuts + radar needs Explains why private sector is growing, impacts of staffing/funding reductions, and the need to modernize radar coverage for severe weather warnings. 30:59 – 31:32 — Wrap + listener contact info Aaron thanks Brian and shares the email + where to find past episodes. Kansas Wheat WheatsOnYorMind.com