WOYM - Trade Deals, Tariff Troubles, and Wheat Strategy

Wheat's On Your Mind

This week on Wheat’s On Your Mind, we welcomed back Justin Gilpin and Dalton Henry for a robust roundtable on trade, tariffs, and the global wheat outlook.  They unpacked why current U.S. wheat export numbers are encouraging—especially for hard red winter wheat—and discussed efforts to regain market traction in areas like South Africa and Southeast Asia.  The team also reflected on how the U.S. is competing globally amid rising challenges from Russia and other exporters. Dalton gave insight into new trade frameworks with countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, as well as how non-tariff barriers like weed seed protocols can pose silent threats to trade.  Meanwhile, Justin emphasized the need for a long-term, national vision to support U.S. wheat exports and logistics.  Whether it’s shipping infrastructure or trade policy, this episode offers a comprehensive look at the forces shaping wheat’s future on the global stage. Key Takeaways Hard red winter wheat exports are rebounding thanks to low prices creating competitive advantages abroad. South Africa and Southeast Asia are bright spots for U.S. wheat exports. Russia remains the primary export competitor, particularly in African markets. Retaliatory tariffs haven’t severely impacted wheat, unlike other commodities. MOUs with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are helping establish long-term trade relationships. China’s wheat import future remains unpredictable due to domestic production priorities. Black Sea peace could stabilize markets, but Russia's wheat pricing strategies might shift. Non-tariff barriers like weed seeds and diseases remain key hurdles, with growing focus on science-based solutions. Japan’s regulators are visiting Kansas, showing strong institutional ties to U.S. wheat systems. A national wheat strategy is needed to address logistics, infrastructure, and global competitiveness. Timestamps 00:01 – Introduction and wheat export context 01:10 – Justin Gilpin on export strategy and market gains 03:17 – Global wheat competition: Russia, Australia, Ukraine 05:12 – Dalton Henry on tariffs and retaliatory trade dynamics\ 07:11 – New purchase commitments from Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam 09:32 – Discussion on China’s role and potential trade shifts 10:55 – Impacts of peace in the Black Sea region 16:01 – Tackling non-tariff trade barriers like phytosanitary regulations 24:20 – Japanese trade delegation and SPS concerns 27:14 – GMO wheat and Japan’s regulatory interests 28:28 – Farmer leadership and trade policy evolution 32:09 – US-flag vessel shipping and national infrastructure needs 36:41 – Call for a unified U.S. wheat export strategy Kansas Wheat WheatsOnYorMind.com