The Fed, Inflation, and Unemployment
Takeaways
Richard Posson uses business cycle analysis and patterns to predict market trends.
He accurately predicted the COVID crash in 2020 and has a successful track record in trading stocks and commodities.
Richard believes that corn prices are at a long-term bottom and expects a bullish trend in commodities.
He discusses the impact of interest rates and the dollar on the market.
Richard emphasizes the importance of considering both fundamental and technical analysis in understanding market movements.
Sound Bites
"I lump it together and I just give it an old fashioned simple name of business cycle analysis."
"I was able to catch the high in 2020 within two hours before that COVID crash."
"My model has been bearish on interest rates, meaning we think lower interest rates are coming."
Chapters
00:00
Introduction to Richard Posson and his podcast
02:24
Business Cycle Analysis and Predicting Market Trends
05:35
Discussion on Interest Rates and the Dollar
18:05
Fluctuations in the Dollar and its Impact on Commodities
21:17
Long-Term Bottoms and Bullish Trends in Commodities
26:36
Understanding Balance Sheets and Assessing Crop Stocks
31:40
The Challenges of Fundamental Analysis in Market Forecasting
38:09
The Importance of Combining Fundamental and Technical Analysis
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