Supply chain issues lurking: Weekly Commodity Market Update for 4/25/23
This week, Will and Ben discuss continued stress on ag supply chains.
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Market recap (changes on week):
- May corn down $.27 at $6.49
- December 2023 corn down $.20 at $5.46
- May soybeans down $.52 at $14.65
- November soybeans down $.40 at $12.71
- May soybean oil down $1.82 at $52.75
- May soybean meal down $25.90 at $439.80/short ton
- May wheat down $.55 at $6.41
- July wheat down $.52 at $6.55
- June WTI Crude Oil down $2.96 at $78.10/barrel
Weekly highlights:
- US energy stocks were mixed on the week. Crude oil and distillate stocks were down week over week while ethanol and gasoline stocks rose. Gasoline demand was down 5% on the week.
- US ethanol production rebounded 19 million gallons to 301 million gallons on the week. The first week above 300 million gallons in 2 months. With the decrease in disappearance and increase in production- ethanol stocks rose.
- Old-crop corn and soybean export sales both disappointed this week at 12.3 and 3.7 million bushels respectively. Both feel well short of trade estimate ranges and comparative sales last year. For corn, this was a 3-month low.
- Cattle on Feed as of April 1 came in at 11.612 million head or 95.6% of last year- slightly above expectations of 95.0%.
- Open interest futures and options positions for Chicago soybeans fell by 3% again last week, while corn was slightly up, and Chicago wheats were nearly flat. Neutral
- Managed money positions were nearly up across the board- the exception soybean oil- increased net long of Chicago corn by 22,322 positions, increased net long of Chicago soybeans by 9,760 positions and increased net long of soybean meal by 10,002 on their large net long positions.
- US ag export inspected volumes this week were all within expectations with wheat exports up week over week but corn, soybeans and grain sorghum all down. -Neutral
- USDA’s crop progress report showed 14% of the nation’s corn planted- up 6% from last week and above the 5-year average, 9% of the soybean crop planted above average of 4% for this time of year.
- The progress report also showed 26% of US winter wheat rated as good to excellent- down 1%.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Lowering open interest in soybeans
- High Mississippi River levels
- West coast port tensions
- U.S. imports
- Reports to watch
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