Beef cow slaughter is down 17% from 2024 | Weekly Livestock Market Update
Market highlights
-Markets opened the week processing last Friday’s cattle-on-feed report and the news of a human case of New World Screwworm in the US.
-The 5-market average fed steer price was essentially unchanged at $243.58 per cwt in today’s report.
-October live cattle futures gained roughly $2 per cwt this week, settling Friday at $239.80.
-Choice boxed beef price was up almost $9 compared to last week, coming in today at $415.41.
-September feeder cattle futures gained almost another $3 per cwt on the week, closing today at $365.48.
-The national base hog carcass price was down about $1 this week at $100.80 per cwt.
-Pork cutout values were up by more than $3 this week at $116.68 per cwt.
-October lean hog futures gained almost $4 per cwt this week, closing at $95 today.
Weekly Slaughter:
-Cattle slaughter for the week is projected at 565,000 head, which is about 3% higher than last week. Year-to-date, cattle slaughter is running 6.9% below last year.
-Hog slaughter was down about 1% from last week, estimated at 2.391 million head. Year-to-date, hog slaughter is down 2.4% from last year.
Beef Cow Slaughter Trends
-Beef cow slaughter continues to run 17% below 2024 levels. The industry is on track to harvest almost 500,000 fewer beef cows than last year.
-This continues to suggest a slightly smaller cowherd is likely going into 2026.
USDA Quarterly Trade Outlook - August:
-Beef and veal export forecasts for this fiscal year (Oct 2024 to September 2025) were largely unchanged from May (slight value decrease). But value is expected to drop by roughly 7% for the 2026 fiscal year.
-Similar to beef, pork export value estimates were lowered slightly for the current fiscal year. Export volumes are expected to be steady for the upcoming fiscal year for pork.
-Beef and veal import forecasts were raised for the current FY from May, but projected to decrease by a bit in the upcoming fiscal year.
-Imports are much less significant for pork, but value estimates were raised slightly for the current fiscal year. Projections for the 2026 fiscal year were essentially the same as 2025.
-Not surprisingly, live cattle imports are forecast to be lower in the 2026 fiscal year.
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