Western Cornbelt rainfall pauses planting | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben discuss how tightening corn ending stocks sets the futures market up for gains if adverse weather lowers yield potential this summer.
Market recap (changes on week as of Friday's close):
» May 2025 corn down $.08 at $4.82
» December 2025 corn up $.03 at $4.66
» May 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.35
» November 2025 soybeans up $.06 at $10.31
» May soybean oil up 0.51 cents at 47.86 cents/lb
» May soybean meal down $3.80 at $295.80/short ton
» May wheat down $.07 at $5.48
» July 2025 wheat down $.09 at $5.61
» May 2025 cotton up 0.43 cents at 66.32 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton down 0.07 cents at 68.44 cents/lb
» May 2025 rough rice down $0.02 at $13.485/cwt
» September 2025 rough rice down $0.12 at $13.545/cwt
» May WTI Crude Oil up $3.07 at $64.57/barrel
Weekly highlights:
U.S. retail sales in March surged to a 26-month high. Consumer product chains warn that it was a lot of panic buying ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs on imports.
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 194.6 million bushels in March- down 3 million from expectations, but up 16.7 million bushels from the disappointing February value.
Again, this week crude oil stocks were higher (+21.6 million gallons) while U.S gasoline and distillate fuels were down 82.2 and 77.7 million gallons respectively. U.S. gasoline demand was flat week over week.
U.S. ethanol production fell to 298 million gallons matching a calendar year low. Ethanol stocks decreased 9.24 million gallons, but remain seasonally high.
Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were mixed. Corn sales of 61.5 million bushels are 2.5 months high, soybean sales of 20.4 million bushels are a six-week high. Grain sorghum and cotton export sales were average. Wheat and rice sales were somewhat disappointing.
U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1, 2025 was down 1.6% year over year- nearly matching expectations. Placements and marketings in March at +5.1% and +1.1%, respectively were both slightly higher than expected.
Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds fell 4% week over week. Producers and merchants were net sellers expanding their short position while money mangers were net buyers of 208,757 contracts- decreasing their short position.
U.S. export inspections were bullish for grains and neutral to bullish for oilseeds for the second straight week. Corn and wheat inspections came in above all expectations at 67.0 and 18.7 million bushels, respectively. Soybean inspections were as expected at 20.2 million bushels.
U.S. corn planting was 4% this week- a little behind the 5% average for this time of year and behind the 6% trade expectation. U.S. soybean planting is at 2% matching the 2% on average but also behind the 3% expected in pre-report expectations.
U.S. winter wheat conditions were 47% good to excellent- down 1 point from the week prior but matching trade expectations. The value compares to 55% good to excellent this time last year.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Corn carryout tightens
» Wet planting conditions
» March NOPA report
» Reports to watch
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