USDA shifts planted acreage outlook for key crops | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben review the latest USDA acreage and stocks numbers and take a look at what Trump's reciprocal tariffs mean for agriculture.
Market recap (changes on week as of Friday's close):
» May 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.53
» December 2025 corn down $.09 at $4.42
» May 2025 soybeans up $.14 at $10.23
» November 2025 soybeans up $.22 at $10.29
» May soybean oil up 3.15 cents at 45.16 cents/lb
» May soybean meal down $6.80 at $293.50/short ton
» May wheat down $.30 at $5.28
» July 2025 wheat down $.32 at $5.42
» May 2025 cotton up 1.63 cents at 66.90 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton up 1.43 cents at 70.09 cents/lb
» May 2025 rough rice up $0.095 at $13.515/cwt
» September 2025 rough rice up $0.10 at $13.755/cwt
» May WTI Crude Oil up $0.91 at $69.28/barrel
Weekly highlights:
Consumer confidence dropped in March to 92.9, down 7.2 points from 100.1 in February. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
Personal incomes were higher than expected in February while spending was slightly less. The PCE index at 0.3% matched expectations and the prior months increase signaling prices remain stubborn.
Energy stocks were largely down week over week. Crude oil minus the strategic petroleum reserve was down 140.3 million gallons, gasoline down 60.7 million gallons, and distillate fuel down 17.7 million gallons.
US ethanol production decreased to 310 million gallons- down from 325 million gallons the week prior and matching the same volume last year. US ethanol stocks increased 32.6 million gallons.
Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were largely as expected, but mostly down week over week and recent volumes. Corn sales- 49.9 million bushels, soybean sales-12.4 million bushels, wheat- 3.7 million bushels, rice- 2.2 million hundredweight, and cotton- 89,000 bales.
Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 0.3% week over week. Producer and merchants decreased their net short 109,703 futures and options contracts. Money managers increased their net short 108,996 contracts.
USDA released grain stocks as of March 1- grain stocks were nearly as estimated across the board. Corn and rough rice stocks were down year over year, while soybean and sorghum stocks were up year over year.
USDA reported farmers intend to plant 95.3 million corn acres, 83.5 million soybean acres, 6.09 million soft red winter wheat acres, 9.87 million cotton acres, and 2.9 million rice acres.
Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were relatively strong this week. Corn exports of 63.6 million bushels were bullish coming in above all pre-report expectations. Soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat exports at 29.1, 0.9, and 16.0 million bushels were at the top end of expectations.
Topics:
» Market recap
» USDA acreage numbers
» USDA stocks report
» Trump administration tariff actions
» Reports to watch
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