The threat of trade friction with key partners looms | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben examine how threats of tariffs could impact ag markets.
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
0:49 Market recap
2:54 Avoiding trade friction with Columbia
5:12 Pressure to cut interest rates
9:46 Reports to watch
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» March 2025 corn up $.02 at $4.86
» December 2025 corn up $.05 at $4.56
» March 2025 soybeans up $.21 at $10.55
» November 2025 soybeans up $.21 at $10.48
» March soybean oil about down .47 cents at 45.22 cents/lb
» March soybean meal up $8.70 at $305.90/short ton
» March wheat up $.06 at $5.44
» July 2025 wheat up $.10 at $5.70
» March 2025 cotton flat at 67.61 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton up 0.38 cents at 69.50 cents/lb
» October WTI Crude Oil down $1.86 at $74.66/barrel
Weekly highlights:
Consumer Sentiment in January declined for the first time in six months due to deteriorating thoughts about current economy and expectations of the future. Expectations included higher prices and a weaker job market.
US crude oil input, gasoline, and distillate fuel production was all lower week over week. US crude oil stocks fell 42.7 million gallons week over week along with distillate fuel stocks down 128.9 million gallons. US gasoline stocks were 97.9 million gallons higher with weekly implied gasoline demand down 3% week over week.
US ethanol production increased to 323 million gallons- up from 322 the week prior and compares to 240 million gallons produced durign this week last year. Ethanol stocks were up 36.4 million gallons on the week.
It was another strong week for corn export sales at 65.4 million bushels. Soybean exports also made a bullish counter seasonal move at 54.8 million bushels. There were no grain sorghum sales, while all wheat export sales were bearish at 6.1 million bushels. The wheat sales volume was below all pre-report expectations.
Cattle on Feed as of January 1 were reported at 11.823 million head. The number is 99.1% of January 1, 2024, with the trade anticipating 99.6% Cattle placements in December were 96.7% vs trade estimate of 100.0%. Cattle marketings of 101% were below the average estimate of 101.3%. The report was seen as bullish to cattle markets.
Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds increased 4.6% on the week. Producers and merchants were net sellers on the week of 80,041- the fifth week of sales after 179,249 contracts last week, while money managers were net buyers of 44,467 contracts after 122,026 last week.
Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed. Corn inspections of 49.1 million bushels were as expected, soybean inspections of 26.8 million bushels were bearish, while wheat inspections of 17.8 million bushels were bullish. There were 35,000 bushels of grain sorghum inspected.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Avoiding trade friction with Colombia
» Tariff threats looming over Canada, Mexico
» Pressure to cut interest rates
» Reports to watch
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