Tariff pause, weakening dollar support crop markets | Weekly Commodity Market Update
In this video, Will and Ben look at the rebound in crop prices as tariffs are largely paused and the inflationary pressures ease.
Market recap (changes on week as of Friday's close):
» May 2025 corn up $.30 at $4.90
» December 2025 corn up $.17 at $4.63
» May 2025 soybeans up $.65 at $10.42
» November 2025 soybeans up $.41 at $10.25
» May soybean oil up 1.51 cents at 47.35 cents/lb
» May soybean meal up $16.50 at $299.60/short ton
» May wheat up $.26 at $5.55
» July 2025 wheat up $.28 at $5.70
» May 2025 cotton up 2.53 cents at 63.36 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton up 2.35 cents at 68.51 cents/lb
» May 2025 rough rice up $0.43 at $13.505/cwt
» September 2025 rough rice up $0.315 at $13.665/cwt
» May WTI Crude Oil down $0.49 at $61.50/barrel
Weekly highlights:
Both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index fell month over month- well below expectations they would increase just slightly. The initial consumer sentiment reading of 50.8 came in below the 54.6 expectations.
Energy stocks were mixed on the week. U.S. crude oil stocks were up 107 million gallons while gasoline and distillate fuels were down 67.2 and 148.9 million gallons. Implied gasoline demand was down 1% week over week and 4% below the four-week average.
US ethanol production decreased to 300 million gallons produced- down from 313 million gallons the week prior and 310 million gallons the saw week last year. Ethanol stocks increased 17.7 million gallons on the week and are 9% higher than the five-year average for the week.
Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were neutral to slightly bearish. Sales of corn (30.9), soybeans (6.3), grain sorghum (0.9), and wheats (3.9) million bushels were all within expectations, but down from the week prior and recent volumes.
Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was down 0.4% week over week. Producers and merchants were net sellers expanding their net short position in the complex. Managed money traders were net buyers reducing their net short position.
U.S. export inspections were bullish for grains and neutral to bullish for oilseeds. Corn and wheat inspections came in above all expectations at 72.0 and 22.2 million bushels, respectively. Soybean inspections were as expected at 20.1 million bushels.
U.S. corn planting was 4% this week- a little behind the 5% average for this time of year and behind the 6% trade expectation. U.S. soybean planting is at 2% matching the 2% on average but also behind the 3% expected in pre-report expectations.
U.S. winter wheat conditions were 47% good to excellent- down 1 point from the week prior but matching trade expectations. The value compares to 55% good to excellent this time last year.
Topics:
- Market recap
- Pause on tariffs
- Dollar value adjustments
- Crop export support
- Inflation pressures slow
- Reports to watch
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