Logistical concerns impacting North American ag | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben analyze the impacts of two major logistic hurdles to North American agriculture.
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
1:00 Market recap
2:28 Pro Farmers crop tour
3:39 Canadian rail strike potential
6:05 Low Mississippi River levels
8:21 Record soybean crush
10:25 Reports to watch
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):
» September 2024 corn down $.05 at $3.78
» December 2024 corn down $.01 at $4.00
» September 2024 soybeans down $.15 at $9.56
» November 2024 soybeans down $.10 at $9.76
» September soybean oil down 1.01 cents at 40.47 cents/lb
» September soybean meal up $5.70 at $311.70/short ton
» September 2024 wheat down $.08 at $5.28
» July 2025 wheat down $.07 at $5.89
» October cotton down 0.31 cents at 67.98 cents/lb
» December cotton down 0.39 cents at 68.68 cents/lb
» September WTI Crude Oil down $5.29 at $74.37/barrel
Weekly highlights:
Last week’s economic data showed that annualized inflations continue to slow but there were month over month gains, US retail sales remain strong, housing starts slowed, and consumer sentiment increased.
US crude oil stocks increased 57 million gallons on the week -all other energy stocks were lower, gasoline, distillate and ethanol stocks were down 122, 70 and 17 million gallons respectively. Gasoline demand increased 1% week over week and is up 2% from the same week last year.
US ethanol production increased slightly to 315 million gallons- up from 314 million the week prior and the year prior.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported their members crushed 182.9 million bushels of soybeans in July- a record for July. With one month to go- cumulative crush is up 5% year over year compared to USDA estimate of 3.5% growth.
Open interest in Chicago commodities was up for corn (1.1%), soybeans (8.2%), soybean oil (2.4%), soybean meal (5.0%), cotton (1.4%), and rough rice (3.2%) while down for Chicago wheats (-4.2%).
Managed money futures and options positions increased their net short positions having net sales of 50,258 contracts across the grains and oilseeds. Money managers sold off 41,230 net positions of soybean meal contracts- the largest single week decline. Money managers were also net sellers of corn (-6,462), soybeans (5,431), and soybean oil (-1,004). They were net buyers of Chicago wheats (1,258), cotton (2,570), and rough rice (41).
US Grain and Oilseed export sales for 2023/24 corn, soybeans, and sorghum were bearish. Corn sales of 4.7 million bushels was a marketing year low. Export sales for 2024/25 were strong for soybeans at 49.4 million bushels while bearish for all wheat and cotton at -2.5 million bushels and 0.1 million bales respectively.
US grain and oilseed export inspections were neutral to bullish on the week with corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum all up week over week and near the top of expectations. Wheat exports of 12.8 million bushels were half what they were the week before and on the low end of expectations.
US corn and soybean conditions ratings were unchanged on the week and matched expectations at 67% and 68% respectively.
US cotton conditions decreased 4 points to 42% good to excellent.
The spring wheat crop increased 1% to 73% when expectations were for it to fall 1%.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Pro Farmers crop tour
» Canadian rail strike potential
» Low Mississippi River levels
» Record soybean crush
» Reports to watch
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