A weakening US dollar to benefit ag exports | Weekly Commodity Market Update
This week Will and Ben look at the positive impacts of a weakening US dollar, an historic shift in commodity crop managed money positions and glance at the winter wheat market.
Market recap (changes on week as of Friday's close):
» May 2025 corn flat at $4.69
» December 2025 corn down $.01 at $4.54
» May 2025 soybeans flat at $10.25
» November 2025 soybeans down $.04 at $10.25
» May soybean oil down 0.70 cents at 43.42 cents/lb
» May soybean meal down $3.70 at $296.50/short ton
» May wheat down $.04 at $5.51
» July 2025 wheat down $.04 at $5.65
» May 2025 cotton up 0.56 cents at 66.07 cents/lb
» December 2025 cotton up $0.58 at 67.88 cents/lb
» May WTI Crude Oil down $2.56 at $66.78/barrel
Weekly highlights:
The US economy added 151,000 jobs in February- up from the month prior but below expectations of 165,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.
US energy stocks were up 151.8 million gallons for crude oil, but down 60.2 and 55.4 million gallons for motor gasoline and distillate stocks, respectively. Implied gasoline demand was strong- up 6% compared to the prior four-week average.
US ethanol production increased to 321 million gallons produces- up from 318 million. The volume compares to 311 million gallons last year. Ethanol stocks decreased 11.8 million gallons after shooting to to the highest level since April 17, 2020 the week prior.
Condition rating scores were a mixed bag for wheat markets. Hard red winter wheat conditions increased in Colorado and Kansas while soft red winter wheat conditions declined in Missouri and Illinois. Nearly all states have conditions ratings lower this month than November, the exception being Montana.
Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were largely as expected this week- the notable exception was bullish soybean oil export sales. Corn sales were reported at 35.8 million bushels, soybean sales at 13 million bushels, soft red winter wheat sales at 2.8 million bushels, rice at 1.3 million cwt, and cotton at 0.2 million bales.
Open interest for futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 2.5% week over week while producers and merchants reduced their net short position in the sector 22.1% to a net short of 815,209 contracts. Money managers were large net sellers of 261,820 contracts – the largest single week sell off on record.
Weekly export inspections report for grains and oilseeds was mixed- corn and sorghum inspections were bullish at 71.6 and 2.1 million bushels, respectively, while wheat inspections were bearish at 7.9 million bushels. Soybean inspections at 31.0 million bushels were neutral.
Topics:
» Market recap
» Weaking US dollar a positive for US exports
» The meaning of a record grains and oilseed contract selloff
» Winter wheat snapshot
» Reports to watch
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